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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Currency Market Trend Analysis: January 16, 2017

Currency Market Trend Analysis: January 16, 2017
Source: CXI International Payments Team

 

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

 
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Holiday Country
January 16, 2017 Markets Closed - Martin L. King Jr's Holiday USA
January 16, 2017 Bank of England's Governer Carney speech  England
January 17, 2017 Consumer Price Index (Dec) England
January 17, 2017 Prime Minister May's Speech England
January 18, 2017 Consumer Price Index (Dec) USA
January 18, 2017 Bank of Canada - Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision Canada
January 18, 2017 ECB - Monetary Policy Statement & Interest Rate Decision Europe
January 18, 2017 President-Elect Donald Trump's Inauguration USA

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

After gaining 130 points last week and closing just above 1.31, the Canadian dollar continues to move upwards against the US dollar as President-elect Trump disappointed markets with a press conference that lacked specifics.

Domestic risk remains elevated throughout the week as we look to Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy decision, statement and MPR forecast update.

There are seven key events this week to keep an eye on.  

  1. Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report:  January 18 at 15:00.
  2. Bank of Canada Overnight Rate:  January 18 at 15:00.
  3. Manufacturing Sales:  January 19 at 13:30.
  4. Foreign Securities Purchases:  January 19 at 13:30.
  5. Consumer Price Index:  January 20 at 13:30.
  6. Core Retail Sales:  January 20 at 13:30.
  7. Retail Sales:  January 20 at 13:30.

 

 

GBP - British Pound

The British pound was down last week and closed around the 1.21 mark. The UK Sunday press predicts that PM May’s Tuesday Brexit speech will signal plans for a “hard” Brexit in return for regaining control of the borders.

President-elect Trump’s suggestion of a quick bilateral trade deal between the US and the UK might bring some short term comfort for the GBP but expect the mid-term trend to remain bumpy.

Below are 11 events to watch this week with the big one being PM Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday.

  1. Rightmove House Price Index:  January 16.
  2. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speech:  January 16 at 18:30.
  3. Consumer Price Index:  January 17 at 09:30.
  4. Producer Price Input:  January 17 at 09:30.
  5. Retail Prices Index:  January 17 at 09:30.
  6. Conference Board Leading Index:  January 17 at 14:30.
  7. Prime Minister Theresa May Speech:  January 17.
  8. Average Earnings Index:  January 18 at 09:30.
  9. Claimant Count Change:  January 18 at 09:30.
  10. RICS House Price Balance:  January 19.
  11. Retail Sales:  January 20 at 09:30.

 

EUR - Euro

The Euro had a nice run during the second week of 2017 after riding on the greenback’s weakness caused by among other things, Donald Trump’s economic messages that were high on rhetoric and low on specifics, especially around fiscal stimulus.

Unemployment remains steady at 9.8% as business confidence continues to rise while good news came out of the industrial output data.

Heading into this week, the ECB rate decision is clearly at the top of the agenda for investors among these other key events.

  1. Trade Balance:  January 16 at 10:00.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment:  January 17 at 10:00.
  3. German CPI - Final:  January 18 at 07:00.
  4. Consumer Price Index - Final:  January 18 at 10:00.
  5. Current Account:  January 19 at 09:00.
  6. Rate Decision:  January 19.
  7. German Producer Price Index:  January 20 at 07:00.

 

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About the Author

Ganesh Persaud

 Ganesh Persaud - Corporate Trader

Ganesh educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan?


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Posted By Ganesh Persaud at 01:51 PM
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