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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 24, 2018

Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 24, 2018
Source: CXI International Payments Team

 

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

 
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday  
April 23, 2018 Markit PMI Composite/Manufacturing EUR
April 23, 2018 Wholesale Sales CAD
April 24, 2018 CBI Industrial Trends Survey GBP
April 24, 2018 Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP
April 25, 2018 BoC Governor Poloz Speech CAD
April 26, 2018 Nationwide Housing Prices GBP
April 26, 2018 ECB Monetary Policy Statement EUR
April 27, 2018 Eurogroup Meeting EUR
April 27, 2018 GDP Release YoY and QoQ GBP

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7935 and closed at 0.7834 – depreciating by 1.27% due to the inflation figures bringing surprise downside to the CAD.

With Canadian consumer prices rising annualized at 2.3% and Core prices increasing 0.2% MoM have caused the CAD to decrease. The surprise of below expected values has heavily negatively impacted the CAD. Investors were hoping for more healthier numbers. Now the possibility of rate hikes seems more likely.

NAFTA agreements have been going on back and forth between US and Mexico this past weekend. It does appear that a deal before May is unlikely. Mexico elections are in early July and the Mexican politicians will not want a deal with this magnitude to be completed in the middle of an election campaign.

All eyes and ears will be on the BoC Governors speech to see how likely rate hikes will happen and the health of Canada in the future.

 

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday, April 23th

2. BoC Governor Poloz Speech: Wednesday, April 25th


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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4237 and closed at 1.4002 – depreciating by 1.65% due to a ripple effect from comments made by Mark Carney, BoE Governor.

On Thursday last week Mark Carney stated that with uncertainties related to Brexit could delay rate hikes. This caused investors to be more bearish and the pound dropped by 150bps. Also comments by Bank of England Governor, Michael Saunders, caused pressure on the GBP. We will see how the market reacts to the following economic data to be released.

 

1. CBI Industrial Trends Survey: Tuesday, April 24th

2. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday, April 24th

3. Nationwide Housing Prices: Thursday, April 26th

4. GDP Release YoY and QoQ: Friday, April 27th


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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2336 and closed at 1.2285 – depreciating by 0.41% with speculation of EUR health and the US coming out strong with macroeconomic data.

Investors are expecting a further decline in April with the EUR. There are still market outcomes to come this week from the Eurogroup meeting but investors are still not convinced to see a healthy EUR. The US has posted some positive numbers with a higher than expected bond yield. We will keep an eye out on what the outcome will be from the Eurogroup meeting.

 

1. Markit PMI Composite/Manufacturing: Monday, April 23rd

2. ECB Monetary Policy Statement: Thursday, April 26th

3. Eurogroup Meeting: Friday, April 27th


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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call


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