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06-18-2019 08:15

Super Mario unleashes dovish surprise ahead of Fed meeting tomorrow
Super Mario unleashes dovish surprise ahead of Fed meeting tomorrow

• European bond yields plunge, market pricing for ECB cuts moved up 7 months.
• EURUSD falls to 1.1180s support but comments from Trump & Praet help the market bounce.
• AUDUSD bounces off 0.6830s support. Dovish RBA Minutes were nothing new for traders.
• USDJPY traders resume selling, following global yields lower. Magnitude 8.4 quake hits Honshu.
• USDCAD steady after upbeat US data arrests downtrend on Friday.
• Interest rate traders expecting uber dovish Fed tomorrow, while USD traders appear to have hedged bets.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Rachel Butler at 08:15 AM

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06-14-2019 08:15

US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.
US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.

• Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher.
• Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates too as 5y5y inflation swap forwards trade to new lows 1.14%.
• German bunds trade to new lows (-0.27%). EURUSD now breaking chart support at 1.1240s.
• GBP traders nervous about Boris Johnson’s unwillingness to completely remove no-deal Brexit risk.
• AUDUSD follows NZDUSD lower in Asia, now follows EURUSD lower after upbeat US Retail Sales.
• US Industrial Production for May beats expectations: +0.4% MoM vs +0.2%.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-13-2019 08:15

Oil prices surge 4% after two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman
Oil prices surge 4% after two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman

• USDCAD recedes off chart resistance in the 1.3330s, but no risk-off flows evident. Gold and JPY steady.
• EURUSD testing chart support in 1.1270-80s after losing 1.1310s yesterday.
• Boris Johnson shows commanding lead in Tory leadership race. Wins 114 votes in first ballot.
• AUDUSD sinks after mixed Australian Employment Report. Markets looking for another 25bp rate cut this summer.
• USDJPY following the S&P futures higher during European trade. Energy stocks likely to lead.
• US reports its May Retail Sales report tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:15 AM

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06-12-2019 08:15

Fed rate cut trade now looking for soft US May CPI figures to support
Fed rate cut trade now looking for soft US May CPI figures to support

• Traders expecting +1.9% YoY & +2.1% ex food and energy.
• Crude oil continues lower after bearish APIs. Weekly EIA report out at 10:30amET.
• European 5y5y inflation swap trades to new record lows, doesn’t help ECB.
• Boris Johnson not aiming for no-deal Brexit.
• Over 1.1blnUSD in options expiring in USDCAD at 1.3275 this morning.
• Australia reports its May Employment report tonight at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-11-2019 08:15

Quiet FX markets await fresh catalysts. US May PPI on deck.
Quiet FX markets await fresh catalysts.  US May PPI on deck.

• Traders expecting US PPI +2.0% YoY for May and +2.3% ex. Food and energy.
• UK wage growth for May beats expectations, helps GBP mildly outperform.
• PBOC fixes CNY higher last night. USDCNH recedes off 6.94 handle.
• Option expiries in play for EURUSD and USDJPY, likely contributing to quiet ranges.
• Trump slams Federal Reserve again, saying interest rates are too high.
• Australia reports Consumer Confidence tonight at 8:30pmET. Chinese May CPI out at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-10-2019 08:15

Mexico tariffs averted as US & Mexican negotiators reach deal
Mexico tariffs averted as US & Mexican negotiators reach deal

• MXN surging 2%. Global risk-off trade reverses. Gold drops and bond yields bounce.
• USDCAD still in the pits following double whammy of negative US/positive Canadian jobs data on Friday.
• GBPUSD gives up post NFP gains following much weaker than expected UK GDP for April (-0.4% vs -0.1%)
• AUDUSD reverses bullish breakout above 0.6990s following weak Chinese import growth for May.
• EURUSD down too, but holding up relative to GBP and AUD. Funds cover shorts into June 4.
• USDJPY gaps higher to start week. Fund longs continue to liquidate.
• This week’s calendar features US CPI and Retail Sales reports for May.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-07-2019 08:15

It's jobs Friday!
It's jobs Friday!

• Traders expecting +185k new jobs in the US and just 5-8k new jobs in Canada for May.
• PBOC’s Yi Gang says China has “tremendous” room to adjust monetary policy if the trade war deepens.
• USDCNH pops when Yi says “no number is more important than any other” when referring to exchange rate line in the sand.
• US/Mexico trade talks in focus. White House confirms 5% tariffs still planned for Monday.
• Australian markets closed on Monday for the Queen’s Birthday holiday.
• Weekly CFTC update on fund positioning out at 3:30pmET today.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-06-2019 08:15

ECB extends "on-hold" rate guidance until 1H 2020, killing rate cut speculation heading into meeting.
ECB extends

• Mario Draghi’s press conference now underway. Live link here: https://t.co/N52MkNqX25
• EUR buying leading broad USD selling into NY trade. GBP, AUD, CAD all trade higher.
• USDJPY continues to struggle as US 10s, gold, Dec Euros continue to focus on Fed rate cuts.
• Canadian Trade Balance for April beats estimates (-0.97bln vs -2.80bln expected).
• US Trade Balance for April narrowly misses estimates (-50.8bln vs -50.7bln expected).
• Fed’s Kaplan and Williams speaking today. BOJ’s Kuroda speaks tonight.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-04-2019 08:15

RBA cuts rates 25bp. Markets calm down ahead of speech from Powell.
RBA cuts rates 25bp.  Markets calm down ahead of speech from Powell.

• Australia central bank cuts rates by 25bp to 1.25% and continues to hint at another cut by years end.
• AUDUSD barely unchanged as Governor Lowe has telegraphed this outlook for over a month.
• S&P futures, US yields and the broader USD bounce ahead of a speech from the Fed’s Powell at 9:45amET.
• August gold and Dec Eurodollar back off recent highs.
• UK Construction PMI for May misses expectations, but GBPUSD holds downside test of 1.2650s.
• USDJPY desperately trying to hold the 108.10s.
• US Factory Orders for April out at 10amET. Traders expecting -0.9% MoM.
• Australia reports its Q1 GDP figures tonight at 9:30pmET. Traders expecting +0.5% QoQ

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-03-2019 08:15

Gold prices and Eurodollar interest rate futures race higher to start week
Gold prices and Eurodollar interest rate futures race higher to start week

• Traders starting to seriously price in Fed rate cuts for later this year. Broader USD suffering as a result.
• USDCAD records bearish reversal on Friday’s chart. Bounce in oil prices not helping today.
• EURUSD technicals turn increasingly positive with move above 1.1160s. ECB meets on Thursday.
• Sterling lags this morning as UK Manufacturing PMI for May misses expectations.
• AUDUSD continues higher after closing above 0.6935 on Friday. Bid to CNH following upbeat China Caixan number helping.
• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut rates by 25bp tonight.
• USDJPY finds buyers at 108.10s support, but remains under pressure with sinking global bond yields.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Rachel Butler at 08:15 AM

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