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08-13-2019 08:15

German ZEW misses. US CPI beats. USDCNH steady.
German ZEW misses. US CPI beats. USDCNH steady.

• German July ZEW misses: Current Situation -14.5 vs -7.0 exp. Expectations Index -44.1 vs -28.5 exp.
• US July CPI beats on the headline: +1.8% YoY vs. +1.7% exp, but wage growth disappoints MoM.
• EURUSD traders shake off weak German data, so far shaking off stronger US inflation data as well.
• EURUSD pivots at 1.1210s again today, 1.2100 in GBPUSD. UK June employment report beats.
• AUDUSD lagging the rest of the pack as Sep copper continues to reject 2.60s to the upside.
• USDCAD inching higher with both 1.3240s and 1.3260s giving way. Weekly API oil inventory report out at 4:30pmET.
• Australian Q2 Wage Price Index out at 9:30pmET tonight. Chinese Retail Sales/IP data for July at 10pmET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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08-12-2019 08:15

The Fed disappoints the uber doves but US/China trade war escalation sees global interest rates resume downtrend
The Fed disappoints the uber doves but US/China trade war escalation sees global interest rates resume downtrend

• Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp, cites cut as insurance, mid-cycle adjustment and not the start of a rate cutting cycle.
• Interest rate markets collectively say “ya-right” the next day and resume downward trend.
• Trump threatens new 10% tariff on $300bln of Chinese imports effective Sep 1st. PBOC fails to defend 7.00 in dollar/yuan.
• PBOC tries to calm markets with HK bond sale, lower than expected USDCNY daily fixes.
• Sterling collapses as government “turbo-charges” preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Italy potentially facing new elections.
• US CPI, Retail Sales, Philly Fed and Industrial Production in focus for North American data this week.
• Australia reports its July employment figures on Wednesday night.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-26-2019 08:15

Mario Draghi disappoints the doves, leads to Fed rate cut jitters ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
Mario Draghi disappoints the doves, leads to Fed rate cut jitters ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

• ECB keeps deposit rate unchanged at -0.40%. Admits rate cuts not even discussed.
• ECB exploring options to reinforce its forward guidance on policy rates.
• Fed rate cut trade takes a hit as markets fear Powell might disappoint next week as well.
• USD breaks higher while bonds, gold and Eurodollars trade lower.
• AUD and CAD extend to new monthly lows, while EURUSD continues to hug 1.1140s.
• US preliminary GDP for Q2 beats expectations: 2.1% vs +1.8%.
• Fed fund futures post GDP report: 81% odds of 25bp cut. 19% odds of 50bp cut.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-25-2019 08:15

German Manufacturing "in freefall" according to IFO. Over to you Mario Draghi.
German Manufacturing

• July German IFO survey: 92.2 vs 94.0 exp for Expectations, 95.7 vs 97.2 exp for Business Climate.
• All eyes now on ECB press release up next at 7:45amET. Mario Draghi press conference at 8:30amET.
• OIS pricing still pricing in 40% chance of 10bp cut to ECB’s deposit rate. EURUSD trying to regain 1.1140s.
• US Durable Goods Orders for June at 8:30amET. Traders expecting +0.7% MoM.
• Boris Johnson reiterates “absolute commitment” to UK leaving the EU on Oct 31st, with or without a deal.
• RBA’s Lowe: “reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates”.
• RBA’s Lowe: “prepared to provide additional support by easing monetary policy further”.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-24-2019 08:15

Germany's flash PMI for July surprises to the downside again
Germany's flash PMI for July surprises to the downside again

• German flash PMI (July) misses: 51.4 vs 52.3 exp. 52.6 prev.
• Eurozone flash PMI (July) misses: 51.5 vs 52.1 exp. 52.2 prev.
• German bund yield back down to -0.38%. EURUSD pressuring 1.1130-40s chart support.
• AUDUSD losses 0.7000 support in Asia. RBA Governor Lowe to speak at 11pmET tonight.
• GBPUSD bid on EURGBP cross sales. Boris Johnson to now choose new cabinet ministers.
• USDJPY quiet, with massive option expiry at 108.00 this morning.
• USDCAD stuck as traders await weekly EIA oil inventory report at 10:30amET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-23-2019 08:15

Boris Johnson becomes new UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson becomes new UK Prime Minister

• GBPUSD gyrates a little bit after the announcement, but not much has changed re: Brexit.
• “Fed-rate cut trade” unwinds a little further. EURUSD and AUDUSD slump after poor technical closes in NY yesterday.
• USDCAD continues higher, with broad USD demand and weak Canadian data (of late) underpinning.
• Can RBA governor Lowe say something to renew the upward AUDUSD momentum tomorrow night?
• Crude oil traders await weekly API inventory report at 4:30pmET.
• Quiet economic calendar today 2nd tier US data: Existing Home Sales for June at 10amET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-22-2019 12:00

5 Facts You Probably Didn't Know About the Hungarian Forint
5 Facts You Probably Didn't Know About the Hungarian Forint

Do you think you know the Hungarian forint? See how much you know about Hungary's currency!

Tags: currency , cxi , currency exchange international , banknotes , ceifx , counterfeit money , hungary , hungarian , forint

Posted By Mandee Myers at 12:00 PM

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07-22-2019 08:15

Fed enters blackout period ahead of next week's meeting
Fed enters blackout period ahead of next week's meeting

• No Fed members can speak until FOMC meeting on July 31st.
• Fed rate cut trade still licking its wounds after Friday’s reversal of Thursday’s breakout.
• Oil markets taking Iran’s seizure of UK-flagged Stena Impero in stride.
• Canadian Wholesale Sales data for May disappoints. Follows weak May Retail Sales on Friday.
• EURUSD traders turning focus to Thursday’s ECB meeting + decision from Italy’s Salvini regarding possible snap election.
• Boris Johnson expected to win Tory leadership contest tomorrow. Some cabinet resignations have already begun.
• Buyers re-group in AUDUSD ahead of Lowe speech mid-week. Funds continue to cover AUD short positions.
• This week’s economic calendar features US Durable Goods for June and preliminary US Q2 GDP.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-19-2019 08:15

Fed's Williams goes uber dovish yesterday. NY Fed and Bullard try to dial it back.
Fed's Williams goes uber dovish yesterday.  NY Fed and Bullard try to dial it back.

• Embarrassing Williams fiasco sees “Fed rate cut trade” explode higher, then retrace.
• EURUSD and Italian markets fretting about possible snap election in Italy.
• Canadian Retail Sales for May miss expectations: -0.1% MoM vs +0.3%.
• Fed’d Bullard to speak at 11amET. Says again this morning that 50bp cut not warranted.
• How short are the funds now in GBPUSD?
• AUDUSD breaks higher above 0.7040 resistance, holding half of gains post Williams.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-18-2019 08:15

EU's Barnier "ready to work on alternative arrangements” regarding the Irish border
EU's Barnier

• GBP rallies across the board. Lawmakers now voting on plan to make it difficult for future PM to prorogue parliament.
• EUR sells off following Bloomberg report about ECB studying revamp of inflation mandate.
• Crude catches a bid following reports of Iran seizing a “foreign” tanker smuggling Iranian oil.
• Bank of Korea surprises with 25bp rate cut. AUD rallies following “ok” Australian jobs report for June.
• US Philly Fed report for July beats expectations. Canadian ADP report for June also beats.
• More Fed-speak on deck today from Bostic and Williams.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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