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07-10-2019 08:15

All eyes on Powell at 10amET. Text of testimony to be released at 8:30amET.
All eyes on Powell at 10amET.  Text of testimony to be released at 8:30amET.

• Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report at 10amET as well. Press conference at 10:15amET.
• USDCAD overnight options pricing predicting 70-80pt intra-day range.
• August crude 2% higher after weekly API reports shows larger than expected oil inventory draw.
• Weekly EIA oil inventory report at 10:30amET. Fed’s Bullard speaks at 1:30pmET. FOMC Minutes at 2pmET.
• Global bond yields continue to show anxiety ahead of Powell. US 10s back up to 2.10%. German bunds back to -0.30%.
• UK May Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production figures miss expectations. UK May GDP comes in +0.3% MoM.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-09-2019 08:15

Fed rate-cut trade get nervous ahead of Powell testimony
Fed rate-cut trade get nervous ahead of Powell testimony

• US treasuries, Eurodollar futures, and gold dip lower again. USD broadly higher.
• Sterling takes out chart support at 1.2500, trades to new 6 month lows. Funds continue to short the market.
• EURUSD getting dragged lower as ECB bond buying talk makes the rounds again. Funds covered shorts during week ending July 2.
• AUDUSD slips lower again as gold re-losses the 1404 level. May NAB Survey disappoints vs last month.
• Funds now net flat USDJPY ahead of Powell testimony, USDJPY holding gains above 108.70s.
• USDCAD drifts back to Friday’s highs amid broad USD strength. Funds flip to net short position during week ending July 2.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-08-2019 08:15

FX markets quiet. Deluge of Fed-speak on tap this week.
FX markets quiet.  Deluge of Fed-speak on tap this week.

• Fed’s Powell to deliver semi-annual MPR before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
• FOMC Minutes and speeches from the Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Barkin and Kashkari also expected.
• Fed rate-cut trade gets hit on Friday following upbeat June payrolls report. 50bp rate cut odds for July get priced out.
• USDCAD traders continue to sell on rallies. Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday, where a more upbeat hold to rates are expected.
• EURUSD clings to support just above 1.1200 as weak German data/strong US job report reaffirms market down-trend.
• USDJPY surges higher past its G20 highs. Bond yields in focus heading into Powell testimony.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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07-04-2019 08:15

The rush for global government bonds goes into overdrive
The rush for global government bonds goes into overdrive

• Over $13.4 trillion in global debt now yielding below zero. German bund yield matches ECB deposit rate, -0.40%.
• LIBOR curve up to 1yr remains inverted. Entire US treasury curve up to 30yrs now yields less than Fed funds.
• US reports weaker than expected economic data this week. US & Canadian employment reports for June out tomorrow at 8:30amET.
• Brussels deems Excessive Debt Procedures against Italy no longer necessary. IMF’s Lagarde nominated to take over ECB in September.
• BOE’s Carney says the “intensification of trade tensions has increased the downside risks to global and U.K. growth”.
• ECB’s Rehn calling for more stimulus “now”.
• US stock and bond markets closed today for the US Independence Day holiday. Regular hours tomorrow July 5.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:15 AM

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07-02-2019 08:15

Poor global manufacturing PMIs for June + renewed EU tariff threat snuff out mild G20 optimism
Poor global manufacturing PMIs for June + renewed EU tariff threat snuff out mild G20 optimism

• June Manufacturing PMIs disappoint across Asia and Europe, putting renewed pressure on bond yields.
• US threatens EU with $4bln worth of new tariffs amid ongoing spat over aircraft subsidies.
• OPEC and Russia agree to extend production cuts as expected. Crude oil fades Sunday gap higher.
• US/China agree to trade “truce” at the G20. Future tariffs on hold, US telco’s can do business with Huawei.
• RBA cuts interest rates by 25bp last night, giving the bond market what it wanted.
• Holiday shortened week features the US & Canadian June employment reports on Friday.
• US markets will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-28-2019 08:15

Traders eyeing Canadian GDP, Business Outlook survey, G20 and OPEC ahead of long weekend
Traders eyeing Canadian GDP, Business Outlook survey, G20 and OPEC ahead of long weekend

• Canadian April GDP expected +0.1% MoM. Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey out at 10amET.
• Traders on G20 & OPEC watch as well.
• USDCAD threatening break of 1.3080s chart support. AUDUSD trading as if G20 will not yield any negative surprises.
• EURUSD continues to range while GBPUSD finds another reason to bounce. UK reports final Q1 GDP +0.5% QoQ.
• USDJPY clinging to chart support in 107.50-70 as interest rates maintain offered tone into weekend.
• Official Chinese PMIs for June out Saturday. Caixin surveys out Sunday night.
• Canadian markets closed for Canada Day on Monday. OPEC meeting joint press conference at 7amET Tuesday

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-27-2019 08:15

WSJ article sours risk mood ahead of G20
WSJ article sours risk mood ahead of G20

• China’s President Xi is reportedly set to present President Trump with a set of terms.
• Markets anticipate Trump to respond negatively.
• USDCAD continues to struggle as oil prices make another run for $60 ahead of the OPEC meeting next week.
• EURUSD choppy in 1.1350-1.1400 range, with renewed slip in German bund yields not helping.
• AUDUSD still holding breakout gains, but struggling at 0.7000.
• Big Canadian data items out tomorrow: April GDP + Business Outlook Survey

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-26-2019 08:15

Mnuchin says US/China trade deal is 90% complete...again
Mnuchin says US/China trade deal is 90% complete...again

• Rehash of April FT headline sees equities, bond yields, CNH and commodities currencies all higher. RNBZ keeps rates unchanged.
• Gold falling 0.8% with yesterday’s bearish hammer close not helping.
• US Durable Goods Orders for May come in mixed. Weekly EIA oil inventory report up next at 10:30amET.
• Fed’s Bullard: SITUATION DOESN'T CALL FOR 50 BASIS POINT RATE CUT
• Fed’s Powell: MONETARY POLICY SHOULDN'T OVERREACT TO SHORT-TERM SWINGS IN SENTIMENT
• July Fed funds rate cut bets pared back, but far dated Eurodollar interest futures not convinced yet.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-25-2019 08:15

Fedspeak Tuesday features speech from Jerome Powell at 1pmET
Fedspeak Tuesday features speech from Jerome Powell at 1pmET

• Fed’s Powell to speak at CFR in speech titled Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools and Communication Practices
• Investors continue to pile into the safe havens as Iran diplomacy takes a turn for the worse.
• German bund yields trade to new lows, US 10s pressure 2.00 percent again, Aug gold trades to new swing high $1,440.
• AUDUSD teasing with upside breakout, led by NZDUSD ahead of RBNZ rate decision tonight at 10pmET.
• USDJPY clinging to Fibo chart support in the 106.90s amid global “flight to quality” bid.
• USDCAD remains under pressure. Chart support in the 1.3170s breaks.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-24-2019 08:15

Trump says Fed "doesn't know what it is doing"
Trump says Fed

• Questions still on everyone’s mind following last week’s sudden capitulation from the Fed.
• EURUSD extends gains following Friday’s break above 1.1340s. Funds continue to cover shorts.
• GBP and AUD traders add to shorts as charts start to bottom.
• Fed chairman Powell speaking tomorrow before CFR.
• Friday to feature Canadian April GDP, Business Outlook Survey, G20 and pre-OPEC meeting chatter.
• USDCAD remains on the defensive sub 1.3210s.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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