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07-02-2019 08:15

Poor global manufacturing PMIs for June + renewed EU tariff threat snuff out mild G20 optimism
Poor global manufacturing PMIs for June + renewed EU tariff threat snuff out mild G20 optimism

• June Manufacturing PMIs disappoint across Asia and Europe, putting renewed pressure on bond yields.
• US threatens EU with $4bln worth of new tariffs amid ongoing spat over aircraft subsidies.
• OPEC and Russia agree to extend production cuts as expected. Crude oil fades Sunday gap higher.
• US/China agree to trade “truce” at the G20. Future tariffs on hold, US telco’s can do business with Huawei.
• RBA cuts interest rates by 25bp last night, giving the bond market what it wanted.
• Holiday shortened week features the US & Canadian June employment reports on Friday.
• US markets will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-28-2019 08:15

Traders eyeing Canadian GDP, Business Outlook survey, G20 and OPEC ahead of long weekend
Traders eyeing Canadian GDP, Business Outlook survey, G20 and OPEC ahead of long weekend

• Canadian April GDP expected +0.1% MoM. Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey out at 10amET.
• Traders on G20 & OPEC watch as well.
• USDCAD threatening break of 1.3080s chart support. AUDUSD trading as if G20 will not yield any negative surprises.
• EURUSD continues to range while GBPUSD finds another reason to bounce. UK reports final Q1 GDP +0.5% QoQ.
• USDJPY clinging to chart support in 107.50-70 as interest rates maintain offered tone into weekend.
• Official Chinese PMIs for June out Saturday. Caixin surveys out Sunday night.
• Canadian markets closed for Canada Day on Monday. OPEC meeting joint press conference at 7amET Tuesday

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-27-2019 08:15

WSJ article sours risk mood ahead of G20
WSJ article sours risk mood ahead of G20

• China’s President Xi is reportedly set to present President Trump with a set of terms.
• Markets anticipate Trump to respond negatively.
• USDCAD continues to struggle as oil prices make another run for $60 ahead of the OPEC meeting next week.
• EURUSD choppy in 1.1350-1.1400 range, with renewed slip in German bund yields not helping.
• AUDUSD still holding breakout gains, but struggling at 0.7000.
• Big Canadian data items out tomorrow: April GDP + Business Outlook Survey

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-26-2019 08:15

Mnuchin says US/China trade deal is 90% complete...again
Mnuchin says US/China trade deal is 90% complete...again

• Rehash of April FT headline sees equities, bond yields, CNH and commodities currencies all higher. RNBZ keeps rates unchanged.
• Gold falling 0.8% with yesterday’s bearish hammer close not helping.
• US Durable Goods Orders for May come in mixed. Weekly EIA oil inventory report up next at 10:30amET.
• Fed’s Bullard: SITUATION DOESN'T CALL FOR 50 BASIS POINT RATE CUT
• Fed’s Powell: MONETARY POLICY SHOULDN'T OVERREACT TO SHORT-TERM SWINGS IN SENTIMENT
• July Fed funds rate cut bets pared back, but far dated Eurodollar interest futures not convinced yet.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-25-2019 08:15

Fedspeak Tuesday features speech from Jerome Powell at 1pmET
Fedspeak Tuesday features speech from Jerome Powell at 1pmET

• Fed’s Powell to speak at CFR in speech titled Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools and Communication Practices
• Investors continue to pile into the safe havens as Iran diplomacy takes a turn for the worse.
• German bund yields trade to new lows, US 10s pressure 2.00 percent again, Aug gold trades to new swing high $1,440.
• AUDUSD teasing with upside breakout, led by NZDUSD ahead of RBNZ rate decision tonight at 10pmET.
• USDJPY clinging to Fibo chart support in the 106.90s amid global “flight to quality” bid.
• USDCAD remains under pressure. Chart support in the 1.3170s breaks.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-24-2019 08:15

Trump says Fed "doesn't know what it is doing"
Trump says Fed

• Questions still on everyone’s mind following last week’s sudden capitulation from the Fed.
• EURUSD extends gains following Friday’s break above 1.1340s. Funds continue to cover shorts.
• GBP and AUD traders add to shorts as charts start to bottom.
• Fed chairman Powell speaking tomorrow before CFR.
• Friday to feature Canadian April GDP, Business Outlook Survey, G20 and pre-OPEC meeting chatter.
• USDCAD remains on the defensive sub 1.3210s.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-20-2019 08:15

The Fed just capitulated
The Fed just capitulated

• FOMC gives markets what it wanted; hastily signals US rate cuts to come this summer/fall.
• Powell cites increased trade uncertainty, weaker business investment, prolonged inflation shortfall.
• Fed’s Bullard dissented; wanted FOMC to cut 25bp yesterday.
• US 10yr yield falls below 2%. August gold breaks out above 1360. Dec Euros trade to new highs.
• USD plunges as the funds got it all wrong with last week’s US data driven pop. Fed ignoring that.
• Lack of detail surrounding Fed’s caution sounding “race to the bottom/currency war” alarm bells across markets.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-19-2019 08:15

Fed under pressure today to cave to market's demand for rate cuts later this year
Fed under pressure today to cave to market's demand for rate cuts later this year

• Interest rate traders pricing in 25bp cut for July and another 60bp of easing by year’s end. USD traders not so optimistic.
• Canadian CPI for May surprises to the upside, +2.4% YoY vs +2.1% exp.
• Trump continues to put political pressure on Powell to cut rates.
• GBPUSD outperforms after May UK CPI meets expectations, Labour considers major policy change.
• Bank of Japan meets tonight, with traders wary of more dovish guidance. Bank of England meets tomorrow.
• Weekly EIA oil inventory data up next at 10:30amET. FOMC release at 2pmET. Press conference at 2:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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06-18-2019 08:15

Super Mario unleashes dovish surprise ahead of Fed meeting tomorrow
Super Mario unleashes dovish surprise ahead of Fed meeting tomorrow

• European bond yields plunge, market pricing for ECB cuts moved up 7 months.
• EURUSD falls to 1.1180s support but comments from Trump & Praet help the market bounce.
• AUDUSD bounces off 0.6830s support. Dovish RBA Minutes were nothing new for traders.
• USDJPY traders resume selling, following global yields lower. Magnitude 8.4 quake hits Honshu.
• USDCAD steady after upbeat US data arrests downtrend on Friday.
• Interest rate traders expecting uber dovish Fed tomorrow, while USD traders appear to have hedged bets.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Rachel Butler at 08:15 AM

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06-14-2019 08:15

US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.
US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.

• Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher.
• Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates too as 5y5y inflation swap forwards trade to new lows 1.14%.
• German bunds trade to new lows (-0.27%). EURUSD now breaking chart support at 1.1240s.
• GBP traders nervous about Boris Johnson’s unwillingness to completely remove no-deal Brexit risk.
• AUDUSD follows NZDUSD lower in Asia, now follows EURUSD lower after upbeat US Retail Sales.
• US Industrial Production for May beats expectations: +0.4% MoM vs +0.2%.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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