USD starts the week with quiet bid

Summary

• USDCAD: Dollar/CAD sits trapped with the 1.3260s to 1.3280s this morning as the broader USD opens quietly bid to start the week.  Friday’s Canadian employment report was absolutely stellar, but sellers failed to keep the market below chart support in the 1.3260s for very long.  We think this bodes well for USDCAD here as the market now toys with breaking the downward trend that’s been in place since the beginning of January, but we’d need to see a firm break above the 1.3320s to confirm.  Today’s calendar is very quiet, which will likely leave traders eyeing chart levels, the broader USD and oil prices as usual.  Tomorrow brings OPEC’s monthly oil report and a speech from Fed chairman Powell at the Hope Enterprise Rural Policy Forum.  Wednesday sees the release of the US CPI figures for January.  Thursday features US Retail Sales and the Canadian Manufacturing Shipments data; both for the month of December.  Finally on Friday we’ll get the US Industrial Production figures for January.

• EURUSD: Euro/dollar just can’t catch a break here as traders push the market down for the 6th session in a row today.  Friday’s attempt to regain support in the 1.1340s fizzled just as quickly as Thursday’s attempt, and with that came a pretty lackluster NY closing pattern.  The Chinese markets re-opened today after the week long Lunar New Year holidays and rallied USDCNH confidently back above the 6.78s, which we said on Friday was noteworthy for EURUSD (because of strong inverse correlation).  Low level trade talks between the US and China are set to resume this week, and so we think the Yuan warrants some attention here once again.  The European calendar this week features the Eurozone December Industrial Production figures on Wednesday, followed by Germany’s Q4 2018 GDP figures on Thursday.  Italian bonds have caught a bit of a bid this morning (tightening up the BTP/Bund spread a little), but it’s not doing much to support EURUSD here.  We think the sellers remain in control sub 1.1340.

• GBPUSD: Sterling is falling lower this morning, after Friday’s late slip back below the 1.2940s gave sellers some confidence to reenter.  Adding to the market’s woes this morning was a sea of weaker than expected UK economic data.  The December Manufacturing/Industrial Production data, Q4 GDP, and the December Trade Balance all printed worse than estimates, and so GBP sellers have had plenty to stew on here today.  Near term chart support today comes in at the 1.2890s, then the post BoE spike lows in the 1.2850s.  The latest Brexit headlines suggest that while debate on the topic will resume in parliament this Thursday, there are no important votes scheduled.  Theresa May is expected to make a Brexit statement tomorrow.  We think GBPUSD will continue to trade on the defensive so long as we stay below 1.2950.

• AUDUSD: The Aussie managed to hold chart support at the 0.7080-90s going into the weekend, but bid tone to USDCNH this morning (weaker open for the Chinese yuan this week) is not doing the market any favors.  Copper prices are continuing Friday’s pullback of their 2.85 swing highs, which doesn’t help here in our opinion.  Continued weakness below 0.7080-90 now invites a possible move down to the 0.7000 mark should the market not recover quickly here.  This week’s Australian calendar features the January NAB Survey (out tonight at 7:30pmET) and the Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey (out tomorrow night at 6:30pmET). 

• USDJPY: Dollar/yen has resumed its upward climb today as European equities and the S&P futures trade with a broad “risk-on” tone.  White House advisor Conway has just said “IT LOOKS LIKE THE US & CHINA ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A TRADE DEAL” on Fox News, and with that the S&Ps and USDJPY are making new highs on the session.  We think the market’s move above the 109.50-110.00 range now invites further buying into the 110.50s but, as is normally the case, the momentum will need to come from rising US stocks and US bond yields.  We’d watch 2700-2710 as key support in the S&Ps, and the 2.63 level in US 10yr yields.  Japanese markets were closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.

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About the Author

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

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