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01-21-2020 08:15

Chinese coronavirus fears spark "risk-off" flows in Asian trade
Chinese coronavirus fears spark

• US yields re-open lower, USDJPY falls, and gold prices spike higher initially.
• Two positives European data narratives + gold selloff now helping risk sentiment into NY trade.
• German ZEW survey and UK employment report both surprise to the upside.
• EURUSD and GBPUSD rallies rescue AUDUSD from foray sub 0.6860s.
• Chinese yuan can’t recover from coronavirus-driven losses; overnight US/China news-flow not helping.
• Canadian Manufacturing Sales (Nov) miss expectations, -0.6% MoM vs -0.2%.
• February crude oil chart working on bearish outside day pattern. Front month is March tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-20-2020 08:15

USD trading mildly bid into US Martin Luther King holiday
USD trading mildly bid into US Martin Luther King holiday

• Sterling leading USD strength with negative tones from UK chancellor Sajid Javid.
• Bearish “head & shoulders” patterns continue to depress EURUSD and AUDUSD.
• Overnight oil volatility following supply disruptions in Libya & Iraq doesn’t shake other markets.
• Funds at CME sell USD broadly during week ending January 14, except against JPY. (CFTC)
• USDCAD still observing 1.3010-70 range, but big week ahead for Canadian data.
• Bank of Japan meets tonight. UK jobs report tomorrow. Bank of Canada meets Wednesday.
• Australian employment report out Wednesday night. ECB meets on Thursday morning.
• European January flash PMIs released on Friday.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:15 AM

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01-17-2020 08:15

Bank of England rate cut odds shoot up to 66% after more weak UK data
Bank of England rate cut odds shoot up to 66% after more weak UK data

UK Retail Sales fall 0.6% MoM in December versus expectations for a 0.5% gain.
OIS market now sees 66% chance of 25bp rate cut from the BOE on Jan 30th.
GBPUSD rejects last week’s 1.3080s chart support (turned resistance) with a vengeance.
EURUSD weighed down by weak NY close, GBP selling and huge downside option expiries.
Bearish “head & shoulders” pattern developing in EURUSD. Taking shape in AUDUSD too.
USDJPY needs to break out further fast, or else reversal risks increase.
USDCAD still range-bound, now 1.3110-1.3170, with mildly positive underpinnings.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-16-2020 08:15

US/China "phase one" deal signing passes without much fanfare
US/China

Equity markets rally but the bond traders are not believing it.
US yields continued lower in overnight trade, dragging USD broadly lower.
Better Retail Sales + stellar Philly Fed numbers out of US now sees yields/USD bounce.
Bearish upside breakout failures now being noted on the EURUSD and AUDUSD daily charts.
GBPUSD back to 1.3040s support. Traders now awaiting comments from BOE’s Haldane.
Large option expiry helping to keep USDJPY afloat. The 110.10s keep capping however.
UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment all out tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-15-2020 08:15

US/China "phase one" trade deal to be signed at 11:30amET this morning
US/China

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin touts “very significant”, yet “very complicated” agreement with China.
Ceremony to take place at White House at 11:30amET. Details of the deal to be announced beforehand.
Global markets displaying some pre-ceremony jitters, with lower US yields leading the USD broadly lower.
US core PPI for December disappoints, +0.1% MoM vs +0.2% expected.
OPEC releases un-inspiring Monthly Oil Report. API reports surprise build in weekly oil inventories.
Weekly EIA oil inventory report out at 10:30amET, with traders expecting 474k barrel draw.
Fed’s Harker to speak at 11amET and Kaplan to speak at 12pmET. Fed’s Beige Book to be released at 2pmET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-14-2020 08:15

Global markets steady ahead of looming US/China phase one deal signing
Global markets steady ahead of looming US/China phase one deal signing

“Risk-on” takes another leg higher in Asia following Chinese $80bln purchase pledge.
European time zone dialing back the optimism a bit following SCMP article.
USDCNH breaks below 6.8850 support to make new 6-month low, but now reversing higher.
“Buy the rumor…sell the fact” market reaction on our minds for tomorrow.
USDCAD still stuck in familiar 1.3110-30 to 1.3090 range. AUD glued to 0.6900 option expiries.
EURUSD back lower after running into 1.1140s resistance. Big option expiry at 1.1100 strike today.
Sterling holding the 1.2960-80s as Boris Johnson speaks positively today.
USDJPY scales 110 level to trade to new 6-month highs, but US yields still not following suit.
US CPI for December comes in slightly less than expected.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-13-2020 08:15

Bank of England rate cut odds for Jan 30th gallop to 49%
Bank of England rate cut odds for Jan 30th gallop to 49%

BOE out with yet more dovish comments over the weekend, this time from member Gertjan Vlieghe.
UK GDP for November surprisingly contracts 0.3% MoM vs expectations of no growth.
GBPUSD slumps down to 1.2980s. EURGBP rallies above 0.8550.
USDJPY at new swing high and USDCNH at new swing low, ahead of US/China “phase one” deal signing.
Weak US NFPs help EURUSD bounce off 1.1090s. NY close above 1.1115 also helpful.
Lots of option expiries in and around 0.6900 could force AUDUSD range-trade this week.
This week’s calendar also features US CPI, Retail Sales, Philly Fed and plenty of Fed-speak.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-10-2020 08:31

Bank of England's Tenreyro going dovish too. US & Canadian employment reports up next.
Bank of England's Tenreyro going dovish too.  US & Canadian employment reports up next.

BOE’s Tenreyro “edging towards a cut in rates if downside risks emerge”. GBPUSD still below 1.3080s.
Traders expecting +164k jobs created in the US in December, +25k for Canada.
AUDUSD bounces off better than expected Australian Retail Sales number, but still cannot clear 0.6870s.
EURUSD holding yesterday’s chart support in the 1.1090s. Large option expiry at 1.1140-50 today.
USDCAD momentum neutral after oil bounce/Poloz comments pull market off 1.3090s resistance.
USDJPY threatening upside breakout above weekly resistance in 109.60s, but US 10yr yields not confirming yet.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:31 AM

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01-09-2020 08:15

Trump de-escalates. Carney goes dovish. Australia calls for more evacuations.
Trump de-escalates. Carney goes dovish. Australia calls for more evacuations.

Equities and US yields score bullish daily reversals while February gold and oil futures record bearish reversals.
Dovish comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney sees GBPUSD lose trend-line support in the 1.3080s.
EURUSD still in the pits on broad USD strength, but looming option expiries appear to be supporting today.
AUDUSD fails to close back above 0.6870s. Australia calls for another mass evacuation due to wildfires.
Fed speak + Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz on deck for the NY session today.
US & Canadian December employment reports out tomorrow at 8:30amET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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01-08-2020 08:15

Iran attacks US airbases in Iraq, but no US casualties reported
Iran attacks US airbases in Iraq, but no US casualties reported

Iran fires missiles at Taji, Erbil and Al Asad airbases in Iraq, in retaliation for killing of Qasem Soleimani.
Trump tweets “all is well” after reports of no US casualties. US official said “Iran appeared to be shooting to miss”.
Overnight 4% spikes higher in gold and oil prices have now completely reversed. US yields trading back higher.
Broader USD reaction rather muted, with markets now following US yields for the most part.
US ADP Employment Report for December beats expectations, +202k vs +160k.
Weekly EIA oil inventory report out at 10:30amET, -3.57M barrel draw expected.
President Trump expected to deliver statement at 11amET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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