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11-15-2019 08:15

Kudlow's comments rescue risk into overnight session.
Kudlow's comments rescue risk into overnight session.

NEC Director says deal with China is “close” and that “we are coming down to the short strokes.”
US yields and USDJPY bounce. Broad USD selling continued in Asia, dialed down in Europe, now back again.
EURJPY buying helps EURUSD break above 1.1020s, extend yesterday’s gold-driven technical bounce.
New UK election drama: talk of Brexit Party candidates being offered jobs to stand down in certain ridings.
BREAKING: Brexit Party confirms they have already stood down from 40 non-Tory seats. GBPUSD shoots higher.
US Retail Sales (Oct) comes in mixed. Narrow beat on the headline, but narrow miss ex-Autos)
US Industrial Production (Oct) misses estimates: -0.8% MoM vs -0.4%.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Ben Tidwell at 08:15 AM

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11-14-2019 08:15

Markets in risk-off mode again after weak overnight data.
Markets in risk-off mode again after weak overnight data.

• WSJ article says: “US-China Trade Talks Hit Snag Over Farm Purchases”.
• Japan Q3 GDP disappoints. Australia shocks market with -19k job loss for October.
• Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales data for October misses expectations.
• Germany narrowly avoids Q3 recession. EURUSD spike higher fizzles out.
• Oil prices bid on OPEC cut extension talk, bullish API report from last night. EIA at 11amET.
• Ton of Fed-speak on tap today. Evans, Clarida, Powell, Daly, Williams, Bullard and Kaplan.
• Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz speaks at 10pmET tonight.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-13-2019 08:15

Broad "risk-off" flows kick in after Trump's speech.
Broad

Trump doesn’t deliver the “constructive statement on China” that traders were expecting.
USD broadly higher with “risk-off” flows, ignoring US yield slump. USDCAD breaks above 1.3250.
US reports mixed CPI number for October. Headline measure beats but core measure misses.
Jerome Powell speaks at 11amET before congressional Joint Economic Committee.
Fed’s Barkin speaks at 12:30pmET. Kashkari at 1:30pmET. Harker at 6:30pmET.
AUDUSD slips below 0.6830s. Australia Employment Report out at 7:30pmET tonight.
EURUSD funk continues, ignores fall in US yields. Auto-tariff delay or German GDP angst?
GBPUSD rangebound despite softer headline UK CPI. Tories leading by 10pts in the polls.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Ben Tidwell at 08:15 AM

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11-12-2019 08:15

Markets optimistic ahead of Trump speech.
Markets optimistic ahead of Trump speech.

• US 10s teased break above 1.95%, but backing up a bit now. President Trump to speak at 12pmET.
• Sources familiar with Trump’s remarks say there will be a “constructive statement on China”.
• USDCAD on the verge of positive trend change, but close above 1.3250s needed to confirm.
• EURUSD continues to slip, ignores less negative German ZEW Economic Expectations survey.
• GBPUSD retraces yesterday’s Nigel Farage-driven rally. Labour +3 to 29% in Survation poll.
• AUDUSD holding 0.6830s support. Australian wage and job growth data on deck this week.
• US CPI, Retail Sales, two Jerome Powell testimonies + more central bank speak later this week.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-08-2019 08:15

US yield rally continues. Canadian employment report out next.
US yield rally continues. Canadian employment report out next.

• US yields re-attacking the 1.95% level as White House “very, very optimistic” about US/China trade deal.
• Traders expecting +15.9k new jobs created in Canada in October.
• EURUSD and gold prices succumbing to further pressure from global bond rout.
• Dovish BOE still weighing on minds of GBP traders. Not much chart support beneath 1.2790.
• AUDUSD sinks back below 0.6895 pivot on dovish RBA Statement of Monetary Policy.
• USDJPY higher with US yields, but yet to take out yesterday’s NY highs.
• Recovery in USDCNH notable. Are traders bracing for a negative US/China headline now?

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-07-2019 08:15

Bank of England holds rates unchanged, but two dissenters wanted cuts now.
Bank of England holds rates unchanged, but two dissenters wanted cuts now.

• BOE members Saunders and Haskel vote to cut 25bp now. GBPUSD falls. Carney tilts dovishly.
• IF DOWNSIDE RISKS EMERGE TO UK ECONOMY, THERE MAY BE A NEED TO PROVIDE REINFORCEMENT.
• China and US have agreed to cancel existing tariffs in different phases (Bloomberg). Commodity currencies rally.
• Market chatter questioning Bloomberg story, but it’s “risk-on” for now. Stocks, yields, USDJPY higher as well.
• EURUSD de-couples from inverse correlation to US yields, but post BOE flows in GBPUSD and EURGBP now weigh.
• German Industrial Output (Sep) misses expectations: -0.6% MoM vs -0.4%.
• Canadian Employment Report (Oct) out tomorrow at 8:30amET.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-06-2019 08:15

Broader risk appetite recedes a bit as US yields back up 4bp.
Broader risk appetite recedes a bit as US yields back up 4bp.

Traders awaiting the next US/China headline amid quiet economic calendar.
US yet to confirm willingness to drop some tariffs against China.
Fed’s Evans says monetary policy is “not that far off the neutral rate”.
Fed’s Williams to speak at 9:30amET. Fed’s Harker at 3:15pmET.
Weekly EIA oil inventory report out at 10:30amET. Traders expecting +1.515M barrels.
German Industrial Orders (Sep) beat expectations, +1.3% MoM vs +0.1%.
German Services PMI (Oct) beats expectations, 51.6 vs 51.2.
UK election session officially begins. BOE meets at 7amET tomorrow morning.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Ben Tidwell at 08:15 AM

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11-05-2019 08:15

It's "risk-on" again for global markets, with US 10yr yields now cracking above 1.83%
It's

• Growing trade deal optimism continues to propel stocks, yields and USDJPY higher.
• Negative tweet from Chinese Global Times editor Hu Xijin adds a wrinkle. Subsequently deleted.
• PBOC cuts MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%. RBA focuses on domestic positives in policy statement.
• December 11th Fed Fund futures now at just 5% chance of a 25bp cut.
• German bund at highest yield since July, -0.315%. US 10yr yields contemplating upside breakout.
• US Non-Manufacturing (Services) ISM report for October out at 10amET. Traders expecting 53.5.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-04-2019 08:15

Positive trade headlines boost risk sentiment, but broader USD tone more guarded
Positive trade headlines boost risk sentiment, but broader USD tone more guarded

• Wilber Ross optimistic on China deal; US may not need to put tariffs on EU cars.
• White House official tells Politico a deal with China is almost there.
• S&P +0.6%, Crude oil +1.6%. Copper +0.6%. US yields bumping up against 1.77%.
• Broader USD showing more caution however; bid across the board.
• Weak Aussie Retail Sales, first Christine Lagarde speech 2:30pmET. RBA meeting at 10:30pmET.
• Barclays going short GBPUSD in “Trade of the Week”. BOE meets Thursday.
• This week features US Non-Manufacturing PMI, Canadian jobs report, lots more Fed-speak.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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11-01-2019 08:15

Caixan Manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment overnight, but markets now bracing for potentially negative US NFP
Caixan Manufacturing PMI lefts sentiment overnight, but markets now bracing for potentially negative US NFP

Chinese Caixan Manufacturing PMI (private sector SME) for October 51.7 vs 51.0, highest since Feb 2017.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct) up next at 8:30amET. How bad will the negative effect be from the GM strike?
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) at 10amET, with consensus expecting 48.9.
Massive EURUSD and GBPUSD option expiries could complicate post-NFP market reaction.
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD all holding support, poised to benefit from weak NFPs.
USDJPY clinging to 107.90s support as US 10yr yields continue leaking below 1.70%.
Fed-speak is back. Kaplan (9:30), Williams (12:00), Quarles (13:00) and Clarida (13:00) all speaking today.

Tags: currency news , cad , gbp , usd , eur , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Ben Tidwell at 08:15 AM

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