Currency Market Trend Analysis: March 19, 2018
By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review
Currency Calendar
Date | Releases / Holiday | |
---|---|---|
March 19, 2018 | G20 Meeting | EMU |
March 19, 2018 | Brexit press conference | UK |
March 19, 2018 | FOMC Member Bostic Speech | USA |
March 19, 2018 | ECB’s Mersch speech | EMU |
March 20, 2018 | Consumer/Retail Price Index (Feb) | UK |
March 20, 2018 | ZEW Survey – Current Situation/Economic Sentiment (Mar) | Germany |
March 21, 2018 | Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting | EMU |
March 21, 2018 | Average Earnings including/excluding Bonus (Jan) | UK |
March 21, 2018 | FOMC Press conference | USA |
March 21, 2018 | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | USA |
March 22, 2018 | BoE Interest Rate Decision/ MPC Vote | UK |
March 22, 2018 | Bank of England Minutes | UK |
March 22, 2018 | BoC Wilkins Speech | CAD |
March 23, 2018 | European Council meeting | EMU |
March 23, 2018 | Retail Sales (Jan) | CAD |
March 23, 2018 | Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (Feb) | CAD |
Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.
Market Analysis
Canadian Dollar
CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7804 and closed at 0.7637 – depreciating by 2.14% due to rising tension around trade and possible inflation on the rise.
Even with the exemptions on steel and aluminum the shuffle at the White House leans towards an aggressive stance on foreign relations. President Trump has already stated that Canada had a trade surplus with the US during an argument with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. The NAFTA negotiations are going nowhere fast and there are talks about Mexico making a deal without the US being involved.
The Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz has stated that the Canadian economy has room to grow without creating further inflation and they will let it go through. New home sales have dropped by 6.5%, the previous fall was 14.5%, these two instances occurring cause some tension and worry of the Canadian economy.
1. BoC Wilkins Speech: Thursday, March 22nd
2. Retail Sales (Jan): Friday, March 23rd
3. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (Feb): Friday, March 23rd
British Pound
GBP/USD opened last week at 1.3851 and closed at 1.3942 – appreciating by 0.66% due to Brexit transition deal.
The EU and UK have finally reached an agreement on a transition deal for Brexit and there should be a sign-off by the end of the week. The transition period will be a 21-month process. With this transition deal in place this has brought more certainty for business and citizens of both the UK and EU.
With strong confidence it implies a stronger economy and so there is a slightly higher rate hike possibility. We will see what happens on Thursday at the Bank of England meeting. Depending on the CPI and Earnings that are going to be released a rate hike is possible.
1. Brexit press conference: Monday, March 19th
2. Consumer/Retail Price Index (Feb): Tuesday, March 20th
3. Average Earnings including/excluding Bonus (Jan): Wednesday, March 21st
4. BoE Interest Rate Decision/MPC Vote: Thursday, March 22nd
5. Bank of England Minutes: Thursday, March 22nd
European Central Bank Euro
EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2307 and closed at 1.2296 – depreciating by 0.09%.
With the release of January trade balance being less then what the market expected it seems like the EUR has limited demand at this time. Depending on the outcome of the Brexit talks and also what comes out later this week with the European Council meeting that might change.
There is still a lot of tension with trade talks and Brexit the EU is battling multiple issues and opposite fronts. With a transition plan to be signed later this week, this should help EU and investors feel that the Euro is more desirable.
1. G20 Meeting (EMU): Monday, March 19th
2. ECB’s Mersch speech (EMU): Monday, March 19th
3. ZEW Survey – Current Situation/Economic Sentiment (Mar, Germany): Tuesday, March 20th
4. Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting (EMU): Wednesday, March 21st
5. European Council meeting (EMU): Friday, March 23rd
Get more Currency Market Trend Analysis >>
Sign up to get CXI's Currency Market Trend Analysis sent to your inbox weekly >>
FX Market Pro
Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.
Sign UpAbout the Author
Remon Shehata - Data Analyst
Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com