Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 4, 2018

Ryan April 4th, 2018

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday
April 2, 2018	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	UK/CAD/EMU
April 2, 2018	ISM Prices Paid (Mar)	USA
April 2, 2018	FOMC Member Kashkari Speech	USA
April 3, 2018	Retail Sales (Feb)	Germany
April 3, 2018	ISM NY index – Business Conditions (Mar)	USA
April 4, 2018	PMI Construction	UK
April 4, 2018	Factory Order (Feb)	USA
April 4, 2018	Consumer Price Index (Mar)	EMU
April 4, 2018	ADP Employment Change (Mar)	USA
April 4, 2018	Unemployment Rate (Feb)	EMU
April 5, 2018	Market Services PMI	UK/EMU
April 5, 2018	ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts	EMU
April 5, 2018	International Merchandise Trade (Feb)	CAD
April 6, 2018	Average Hourly Earnings (Mar)	USA
April 6, 2018	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	USA
April 6, 2018	Net Change in Employment (Mar)	CAD

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7759 and closed at 0.7756 – depreciating by 0.04% due to some disappointing releases of the monthly GDP and Raw Materials Price Index.

With this, less than expected, decline in GDP it weakened the CAD. This decline was partly due to the decrease of household spending. Canada already has a high housing debt ratio and the Bank of Canada’s intentions to increase interest rates should be slowed down.

1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Monday, April 2^nd

2. International Merchandise Trade (Feb): Thursday, April 5^th

3. Net Change in Employment (Mar): Friday, April 6^th

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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4131 and closed at 1.4008 – depreciating by -0.87% due to some political retaliations.

Over the weekend Russia announced it will expel more than 50 UK diplomats as retaliation of the expulsions of the Russian diplomats earlier in the week. Tensions are rising ever since the poisoning of a former Russian spy.

With the Bank of England and a fading enthusiasm of a softer Brexit this has caused uncertainty of the Sterling. The GBP has been increasing the past couple weeks and it’s finally when the dust settles and a common ground is being placed on what the valuation of the GBP will be. With the PMI coming out this will surly tell us more of how the GBP and USD will react.

1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Tuesday, April 3^rd

2. PMI Construction (Mar): Wednesday, April 4^th

3. Markit Services PMI: Thursday, April 5^th

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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2358 and closed at 1.2321 – depreciating by -0.30% due to a strong CPE from the US.

With CPI in the EU side decline and the strong CPI on the US side this caused the EUR to depreciate against the dollar. With a new month and new data to be coming in it causes more room for the EUR to grow. If the BOE doesn’t make a firm stance on the rate hike we could see some instability in the EU.

Markets had a long weekend and the eyes are for this week for updated data. This week will set pace for the EUR and USD.

1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar, EMU): Monday, April 2^nd

2. Retail Sales (Feb, Germany): Tuesday, April 3^rd

3. Unemployment Rate (Feb, EMU): Wednesday, April 4^th

4. Consumer Price Index (Mar, EMU): Wednesday, April 4^th

5. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EMU): Thursday, April 5^th

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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

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