• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • SOLUTIONS
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • INDUSTRIES
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

FX markets quiet as Christmas holiday approaches

Ryan December 24th, 2019
FX markets quiet as Christmas holiday approaches

 

 

Take control of your international payments with CXI FX Now.

• Zero transfer fees & great rates
• Fast international payments
• Safety and security
• Unparalleled customer service
• Consultative approach

Learn more about CXI's international payment services for businesses or call our trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

Get real-time market coverage on twitter at @EBCTradeDesk or sign up here.

SUMMARY

USD trading mixed.  US yields re-challenging 1.95% break-out level.  February gold breaks above $1490.
CME equity, interest rate and FX futures markets close early at 1:15pmET.  Global markets closed for Christmas holiday tomorrow.
US markets re-open on Dec 26, while Canada, UK, Australia, and Europe celebrate Boxing Day.
AUDUSD on the cusp of upside breakout.  USDCAD continues to toy with halt to recent downtrend.
Both EURUSD and GBPUSD trying to bounce off familiar trend-line support levels.
German Retail Sales (Nov) and Chicago PMI (Dec) will be reported on Monday Dec 30th.
Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year!  EBC’s Currency Market Trend Analysis returns on January 2nd.
 

ANALYSIS

USDCAD

Dollar/CAD is toying with the fund short position this morning as the Christmas and Box Day holiday approaches.  After two consecutive NY closes below the 1.3150-60 level (which technically kept December’s downtrend alive), we find the market once again trying to get above it.  The broader USD traded mildly higher with US yields in Europe this morning but this move has already started to reverse as NY trade gets underway today.  There should be a whole lot of nothing to markets today, with liquidity getting progressively worse as the day goes on.  The CME’s equity, interest rate and FX futures markets are closing early at 1:15pmET.

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD HOURLY

USDCAD HOURLY

FEB CRUDE OIL DAILY

FEB CRUDE OIL DAILY

EURUSD

Euro/dollar is trying to bounce off familiar trend-line support at the 1.1070s this morning as the Christmas holidays approach.  US 10yr yields bounced confidently off the 1.90% support level yesterday, which seems to be encouraging traders to buy the dip today, and so we don’t think EURUSD will be able to bounce that far.  We’d note an interesting mini-breakout on the February gold futures chart this morning however, with last night’s move above the 1490 level.  Perhaps we’re just seeing a few buy stop orders trip amidst today’s, pre-holiday, lack of liquidity, but the wheels in our heads are already spinning about a possible “risk-off” headline that could shock markets over the holidays.  What could make gold rally here?

US markets will re-open on December 26th while the Europeans will take an extra day off for Boxing Day.  The only major scheduled economic releases on the docket until the new year are German Retail Sales for November and the Chicago PMI for December, both of which will be reported on Monday morning Dec 30th.

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD HOURLY

FEB GOLD DAILY

FEB GOLD DAILY

 

GBPUSD

Sterling traders are trying to prevent seven days in a row of losses this morning by bouncing the market once again off the 1.2920s support level.  We’d call this a mild USD-driven move at most though because the thought of another “no-deal” Brexit deadline (at the end of next year’s transition period) continues to sour the mood in the UK.  More here from the WSJ.  UK markets will re-open on Friday following the Christmas and Box Day holidays.  There are no scheduled economic releases on the UK calendar until late next week.

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD HOURLY

GBPUSD HOURLY

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP DAILY

 


 

AUDUSD

The Aussie continues to struggle against chart resistance in the 0.6920s today as traders are lacking a news catalyst to break the market to new swing highs.  The net short AUD position from the funds at CME, and the fact it has remained more or less the same for three weeks in a row now while the market moves higher, could be contributing to the upside pressure in AUDUSD here following last week’s stellar Australian employment report.  A break above the 0.6920s would set trader sights on the December 13th high of 0.6940, but after that there’s not much resistance on the charts to hold back a market rally until at least the 0.7070s in our opinion.

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH DAILY

 


 

USDJPY

Dollar/yen traders seem as if they’ve already left the office for the Christmas holiday.  The overnight range has been an incredibly tight 7pts, from high to low!!!  US 10yr yields continue to push higher this morning and now look poised to re-challenge the 1.95% level, which is a very important technical development in our opinion.  The market has failed on numerous occasions to get above this level whenever US/China trade deal hype died down, but here we are again threatening a break to the upside.  We think a break-out above the 1.95% level (on a NY closing basis) would be meaningfully positive for the broader USD, and therefore we think traders need to be on guard for some sort of "risk-on" headline over the holidays.

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY HOURLY

US 10YR BOND YIELD DAILY

US 10YR BOND YIELD DAILY

Charts: Reuters Eikon


About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, Head of FX Strategy

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

 

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International, CXI, is the leading provider of comprehensive foreign exchange services, risk management solutions and integrated international payments processing technology in North America. CXI’s relationship-driven approach ensures clients receive tailored solutions and world-class customer service. Through innovative and trusted FX software platforms, CXI delivers versatile foreign exchange services to our clients, so that they can efficiently manage and streamline their foreign currency and global payment needs. CXI is a trusted partner among financial institutions, corporations and retail markets around the world. To learn more, visit: www.ceifx.com

 

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

 

 

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Archive