• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

US Retail Sales and Canadian Manufacturing Shipments disappoint by a wide margin

CXI February 14th, 2019
US Retail Sales and Canadian Manufacturing Shipments disappoint by a wide margin


  • USDCAD: The overnight session has been a bit of a whipsaw for USDCAD.  Sellers faded the late NY move higher into chart resistance at 1.3250-60 during early Asian trade.  USDCNH and the broader USD then went offered after China reported strong export growth in its January Trade Balance figures.  EURUSD got smacked lower after what appeared to be knee jerk stop hunt higher following Germany’s poor GDP result for Q4 2018.  This led to broad USD buying in early European trade, which in turn helped USDCAD recover back into chart resistance.  March crude oil appears to be rejecting the 54.50s yet again this morning, following yesterday’s larger than expected build in weekly EIA oil inventories.  However, more importantly, a few economic headlines have just crossed:


    US Retail Sales (December) : -1.2% MoM vs +0.1% exp.  BIG MISS.

    US PPI (January) : -0.1% MoM vs +0.1% exp AND +2.0% YoY vs +2.1% exp.  SLIGHT MISS.

    Canadian Manufacturing Shipments (December) : -1.3% MoM vs +0.4% exp.  BIG MISS.


    While we’re now seeing broad USD selling as a result of the horrible US Retail Sales number, the negative reaction from the S&P and crude oil futures along with the equally disappointing Canadian Manufacturing Shipments data is seeing USDCAD surge higher into 1.3310s chart resistance.  EURCAD is rallying impressively back above the 1.4950s at this hour.  We think a close above the 1.5020s could usher in a bullish reversal higher for the cross.  We think a close above the 1.3310s in USDCAD will prompt an end to the downward trend we’ve been observing since the start of January.

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar had an up and down overnight session as well.  The strong Chinese export figures came to the rescue in Asian trade and helped the market recover back above trend-line support in the 1.1270s.  The knee jerk reaction to the flat German GDP read was to bid the market higher, but the swiftness of the move and quick retrace lower suggests buy stop orders were hit.  The sellers then pounced again (possibly re-entered) and pushed the market back below support.  The awful US Retail Sales figures have now flipped the momentum around and EURUSD has surged 30-40pts higher.  Further upward momentum here could very easily see us test chart resistance in the 1.1330-40s before the day is out.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling is having a rough session this morning as pessimism leading into some Brexit voting today compounds yesterday’s bearish reversal candle close on the daily chart.  Support in the 1.2850s gave way in early European trade today, and that has now opened up a search for buyers, which is so far proving difficult.  Brexit debate has begun once again in the UK House of Commons, and there is some concern making the rounds this morning that Theresa May will not win enough votes to continue negotiating changes to the Irish backstop.  More here on the technicalities of today’s votes, which are expected to occur around 12pmET.  The poor US Retail Sales figures led to a pop higher in GBPUSD as well, but sellers have been quick to pounce as the market remains below chart support.

  • AUDUSD: The Aussie followed the broader USD tone in overnight trade; trading higher throughout Asia but then getting sold in Europe.  The trend-line level at 0.7110 looks like it will be the pivot for price action yet again today, and so far the release of the US Retail Sales figures is keeping the market above it.  Near term resistance resides in the 0.7030s while near term support rests in the 0.7070s.

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen had a fairly uneventful overnight session; inching higher with the Nikkei and the S&P futures throughout Asian and early European trade.  Some sellers started to appear at Fibonacci chart resistance in the 111.10-20 area during early European trade, but the overall mood to global equities was upbeat following a Bloomberg report that said Trump is considering extending the March 1st China tariff deadline by 60 days.  More here.  All this has changed now following a horrible US Retail Sales print for December.  The S&P futures have fallen 25pts and USDJPY now looks poised to give back all of yesterday’s gains.  Near term support lies in the 110.50s, then the 110.30-40s.  

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.


Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

March Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

March Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

March S&P Daily Chart

Charts: TWS Workspace

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.