Currency Market Trend Analysis: February 20, 2017

Ryan February 20th, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Country
February 20, 2017	Banks Closed - President's Day	USA
February 21, 2017	BoE Carney Speaks in UK Parliament	England
February 22, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)	England
February 22, 2017	Eurozone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)	Europe
February 22, 2017	FOMC Meeting Minutes (Feb. 01)	USA
February 24, 2017	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Last week the Canadian dollar closed relatively unchanged at 1.3090 as the first meeting with Trudeau and Trump was a non-event as each stood their ground to earn mutual respect.

Strong economic data from Canada so far this year has help the CAD hold its own against general USD strength so expect this pair to continue trading in the 1.29 – 1.31 range in the near term.

Looking ahead to this week, the FOMC meeting minutes from the US and Retail Sales and CPI data from Canada could cause some volatility so stay alert.

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday February 20.

2. Core Retail Sales: Wednesday February 22.

3. Retail Sales: Wednesday February 22.

4. Corporate Profits: Thursday February 23.

5. Consumer Price Index: Friday February 24.

6. Trimmed Core CPI: Friday February 24.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP closed last week just above the 1.242 mark which was a small loss from the previous week’s close.

Neutral and balanced data releases from the UK helped the pound to balance out general USD strength over the past couple of weeks which has kept this pair trading in a tight range.

The near term must watch event is the UK Parliament’s debate of Article 50, which basically means there’s no turning back from Brexit once invoked.

1. Rightmove House Price Index: Monday February 20.

2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday February 20.

3. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday February 21.

4. Second Estimate GDP: Wednesday February 22.

5. Preliminary Business Investment: Wednesday February 22.

6. 10-year Bond Auction: Thursday February 23.

7. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales: Thursday February 23.

8. British Bankers Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals: Friday February 24.

EUR - Euro

The EUR closed slightly down last week at 1.0615 and continues to consolidate around the 1.07 resistance mark.

Just as last week, politics in Europe continues to be a major cause for concern, couple this with a potential Fed interest rate hike in March, and the Euro could see a significant move to the downside.

For the week ahead, German PPI and GDP data along with the FOMC meeting minutes from the US are the key events to keep an eye on.

1. German Producer Price Index: Monday February 20.

2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday February 20.

3. Consumer Confidence: Monday February 20.

4. Purchasing Managers Index: Tuesday February 21.

5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday February 22.

6. Consumer Price Index (final): Wednesday February 22.

7. Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO): Wednesday February 22.

8. National Bank of Belgium Business Climate: Wednesday February 22.

9. German Gross Domestic Product (final): Thursday February 23.

10. GfK German Consumer Climate: Thursday February 23.

FX Market Pro

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