Currency Market Trend Analysis: June 5, 2017
By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review
|Date||Releases / Holiday||Country|
|June 5, 2017||Labor Market Conditions Index (May), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1)||USA|
|June 5, 2017||Whit Monday – Many Banks Closed||Europe|
|June 6, 2017||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index||Canada|
|June 7, 2017||Gross Domestic Product (Q1)||Europe|
|June 8, 2017||Initial Jobless Claims||USA|
|June 8, 2017||ECB Deposit Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement||Europe|
|June 8, 2017||New Housing Price Index (Apr)||Canada|
|June 8, 2017||Parliamentary Election||England|
|June 9, 2017||Unemployment Rate (May)||Canada|
|June 9, 2017||Consumer Inflation Expectations||England|
Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
The CAD opened last week at 1.3448 and closed at 1.3500.
The CAD has been trading at a steady rate against the USD in wake of a marginally improved trade balance, and a respectable (but below expectations) Q1 growth rate of 3.7%. Over the past month, the CAD has been strengthening against the USD in response to reduced international confidence in US policy direction.
This week will see the release of Canadian GDP, housing price, and unemployment data.
1. GDP (Q1): Tuesday June 7.
2. New Housing Price Index (Apr): Thursday, June 8.
3. Unemployment Rate (May): Friday June 9.
GBP - British Pound
The GBP opened last week at 1.2802 and closed at 1.2885.
Last week the GBP strengthened marginally against the USD. This morning saw a soft opening in reaction to the weekend terrorist attack.
The parliamentary race has tightened over the past month, with the Labour Party now a normal-sized polling error away from a majority or hung parliament; expect downward pressure on the GBP leading up to the Thursday election.
1. Parliamentary Election: Thursday June 8.
2. Consumer Inflation Expectations: Friday June 9.
EUR - Euro
The Euro opened last week at 1.1180 and closed at 1.1271.
Over the past week, the Euro has strengthened marginally against the USD. Expect volatility stemming from reaction to the US pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as uncertainty leading up to Comey’s testimony.
The Eurozone Q1 GDP will be released on Wednesday; with a Q1 economic growth more than double the US, expect upward pressure on the EUR, possibly tempered by the expected FED rate increase. On Thursday, the EBC will announce their deposit rate decision, and are expected to give guidance on a slowdown of the current QE policy.
1. Whit Monday: Monday June 5.
2. Gross Domestic Product (Q1): Wednesday June 7.
3. ECB Deposit Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement: Thursday June 8.
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