• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

Currency Market Trend Analysis: November 6, 2017

Ryan November 6th, 2017
Currency Market Trend Analysis: November 6, 2017



Looking For International Payments Solutions?

Get access to our free whitepaper and unlock everything you're missing.


By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing
*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday  
November 6, 2017 Markit PMI’s (Oct) EMU
November 6, 2017 PPI (Oct) EMU
November 6, 2017 Eurogroup meeting EMU
November 6, 2017 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Oct) Canada
November 7, 2017 BoC Governor Poloz Speech Canada
November 7, 2017 NIESR GDP Estimate (Oct) UK
November 7, 2017 Consumer Credit Change (Sep) USA
November 8, 2017 Non-Monetary Policy’s ECB Meeting EMU
November 9, 2017 RICS Housing Price Balance (Oct) UK
November 9, 2017 Imports/Exports (Sep) Germany
November 9, 2017 Economic Bulletin EMU
November 9, 2017 Jobless Claims USA
November 10, 2017 Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Sep) UK

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD/USD - Canadian Dollar

Opened last week at 0.7809 and closed at 0.7838.

The CAD appreciated by 0.38% against the USD, as US labor market data disappointed, and Canadian employment rose above expectations. The CAD’s move up at the week’s end was further supported by rising crude prices, a boon for the commodity-sensitive Loonie. The up-tick created by Canadian labor data was muted by disappointing GDP growth (expectation of 0.1% MoM) and a pull-back in retail sales (+0.3% vs +0.5% expectation).

Politics and Poloz’s speech will likely be the main drivers of CAD/USD movement in this data-light week. The CAD is currently vulnerable to more middling data, after the permits, CPI, retails sales, Aug GDP, and BoC outlook surveys all came back below expectations. With this in mind, markets may pay elevated attention to the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index due on the 6th. Further developments with the US Russia-gate may create further upside for the CAD.       

1. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Oct): Monday, November 6th     

2. BoC Governor Poloz Speech: Tuesday, November 7th     


GBP/USD - British Pound

Opened last week at 1.3129 and closed at 1.3078.

The sterling depreciated by 0.39% against the greenback last week, in response to a dovish BoE meeting in which an interest rate hike was passed 7 to 2.  BoE Governor Carney stated that “Brexit may limit central bank's ability to cut interest rates and add to the risks of slower UK economic growth in case there is no Brexit deal”. The BoE’s new statement made no mention of further hikes in coming months, and removed a line from their previous statement saying that policy could be tightened more than the market expects. The BoE indicated that economic growth cannot exceed 1.5% without rising inflation, due to limited slack in the labor market and slowing productivity growth. The BoE also stated that there will likely be two rates hikes in the next three years, further dampening GBP outlook.

The next round of Brexit negotiation is set to begin on Thursday the 9th. Brexit Secretary Davis confirmed last week that negotiations would restart, and that the financial settlement is likely to favor the EU. The Brexit outlook has improved since May’s Florence speech, but there are still numerous points of contention. Markets will be paying close attention to this weeks’ Brexit talks, with further market movement driven by the NIESR GDP estimate and the industrial/manufacturing production figures. Further depreciation is likely, unless these figures surprise to the upside.  

1. NIESR GDP Estimate (Oct): Tuesday, November 7th

2. RICS Housing Price Balance (Oct): Wednesday, November 8th

3. Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Sep): Friday, November 10th


EUR/USD - European Central Bank Euro

Opened last week at 1.1609 and closed at 1.1613.

Over the past week, the Euro appreciated by 0.03% against the USD, as data surprised to both sides, and the USD took a politics-driven hit. Eurozone service indices fell in October, but still reflect solid economic performance. Germany service PMI missed estimates (54.7 vs. 55.), while Eurozone estimates slightly exceeded expectations (56 vs 59.9). Eurozone economic sentiment and business climate figures both surprised to the upside, but were balanced by lower-than-expected core CPI (1.2% YoY vs 1.3%). Despite the Catalan crisis, Spain’s GDP rose 0.8% QoQ, meeting market estimates. Spain has cut their outlook for YoY GDP growth from 2.6% to 2.3% in light of Catalan-driven economic disturbances.

This week will see several key economic figures and events, including PMI’s, PPI, imports/exports, and the beginning of the next round of Brexit talks. This data will drive the weeks’ movements. 

1. Markit PMI’s (Oct, EMU): Monday, November 6th       

2. PPI (Oct, EMU): Monday, November 6th      

3. Eurogroup Meeting: Monday, November 6th      

4. Non-Monetary Policy’s ECB Meeting: Wednesday, November 8th

5. Imports/exports (Sep, Germany): Thursday, November 9th         

6. Economic Bulletin (EMU): Thursday, November 9th              


Charts: TradingView


FX Market Pro

Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.

About the Author

Collin McAliley

 Collin McAliley - Financial Analyst

Collin educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan?



About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com


Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.



This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.


Tags: Ceifx, Resources