• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • SOLUTIONS
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • INDUSTRIES
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

Risk off flows back in action. US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI figures for April up next.

Ryan May 15th, 2019
Risk off flows back in action.  US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI figures for April up next.

 

SUMMARY

  • Traders expecting +0.2% MoM and +0.7% MoM ex. Autos for US Retail Sales.
  • Consensus looking for +0.4% MoM and +2.0% YoY for Canadian CPI.
  • Australian May Consumer Confidence and Q1 Wage Price Index misses expectations.
  • Chinese April Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures disappoint.
  • Italian bonds see follow-through selling following Salvini’s budget comments yesterday.
  • German bund yields at new lows, BTP/Bunds at new 3-month wides, risk-off flows benefiting USD broadly.

 

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact us or call EBC's trading desk directly at 1-888-729-9716.

Get real-time market coverage on twitter at @EBCTradeDesk or sign up here.

 

 

 

ANALYSIS

USDCAD

Dollar/CAD is trading with a bid tone again this morning as the broader USD continues higher, but EURCAD sales are taking the upward momentum out of the market as NY trading gets underway.  The USD is being led higher by weaker than expected economic numbers out of Australia and China overnight, tough talk out of the Chinese foreign ministry today and a falling EURUSD market, which is focused on German bund yields descending to new lows (-0.12bp) and the BTP/Bund spread blowing out to new 3 month wides (+287bp).  Next up are the US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI figures for the month of April at 8:30amET.  Traders are expecting +0.2% MoM and +0.7% MoM ex. Autos for the former, and +0.4% MoM and +2.0% YoY for the latter.  The US Industrial Production numbers for April come out at 9:15amET, and the expectation there is for a flat MoM read.  Finally, we’ll get the weekly EIA oil inventory data at 10:30amET this morning, where traders are now expecting a build of 11M barrels following last night surprise 8.6M barrel build in the API report.  We think USDCAD remains in good shape, technically speaking, so long as the 1.3460s continue to hold.

 

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD HOURLY

USDCAD HOURLY

JUN CRUDE OIL DAILY

JUN CRUDE OIL DAILY

 


 

EURUSD

Euro/dollar is falling swiftly lower this morning as bond traders continue to punish Italian debt following Salvini’s comments yesterday about exceeding the EU’s 3% budget deficit limit.  German bunds, on the other hand, appear to be the safe haven for global investors once again this morning as China says it will find others to fill the gap if the US doesn’t want to do business with them.  This sell Italy/buy Germany debt trade has been traditionally bearish EURUSD, and when we combine these developments with yesterday’s bearish NY close for EURUSD below the 1.1210s, it’s not surprisingly in our opinion to see the market lower here.  The next support level on the charts lies in the 1.1170s.  Dollar/yuan is trading steady today, and has so far not taken out this weeks highs in the 6.9190s.  The ECB’s Coeure will be speaking at 10:15amET this morning and the ECB’s Praet will be taking the mic at 12:30pmET.  

 

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD HOURLY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH DAILY

 


 

GBPUSD

Sterling is following EURUSD lower today after succumbing to sellers below yesterday’s trend-line pivot in the 1.2930s.  Traders have quickly tested the next chart support level in the 1.2890s this morning and so far the level is failing to curb the selling, which means the 1.2850-60s are likely the next stop.  The EURGBP cross is treading steady today at yesterday’s pivotal resistance level in the 0.8680s as traders yawn at Theresa May's announcement for another parliament Brexit vote for sometime in June.

 

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD HOURLY

GBPUSD HOURLY

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP DAILY

 


 

AUDUSD

The Aussie is slipping lower this morning after the May Westpac Consumer Confidence, the Q1 Wage Price Index, and the Chinese Retail Sales/Industrial Production figures for April all missed expectations last night.  Yesterday's key trend-line support at the 0.6940 level gave way pretty easily and we’ve since seen follow-through selling as EURUSD moves swiftly lower.  The S&Ps are giving back 15pts this morning as China’s comments today don’t make it seem like any trade deal is around the corner.

 

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

JUL COPPER DAILY

JUL COPPER DAILY

 


 

USDJPY

Dollar/yen is falling back this morning as a global risk-off wave sweeps over markets again, especially in EURJPY.  Most of yesterday’s S&P driven bounce has been reversed, but the market currently remains above key chart support at the 109.05-15 level.  Over 2blnUSD in options expire between the 109.20 and 109.50 strikes this morning at 10amET.

 

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY HOURLY

S&P 500 DAILY

S&P 500 DAILY

Charts: TWS Workspace


About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, Head of FX Strategy

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International, CXI, is the leading provider of comprehensive foreign exchange services, risk management solutions and integrated international payments processing technology in North America. CXI’s relationship-driven approach ensures clients receive tailored solutions and world-class customer service. Through innovative and trusted FX software platforms, CXI delivers versatile foreign exchange services to our clients, so that they can efficiently manage and streamline their foreign currency and global payment needs. CXI is a trusted partner among financial institutions, corporations and retail markets around the world. To learn more, visit: www.ceifx.com

 

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

 

 

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.

 

Archive