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Monday, April 30, 2018

Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 30, 2018

Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 30, 2018
Source: CXI International Payments Team

 

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

 
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
 
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday  
May 1, 2018 Markit Manufacturing PMI GBP
May 1, 2018 GDP MoM CAD
May 1, 2018 Markit Manufacturing PMI CAD
May 2, 2018 Budget EUR
May 2, 2018 Markit Manufacturing PMI EUR
May 2, 2018 GDP EUR
May 3, 2018 Imports & Exports CAD
May 4, 2018 Markit PMI Composite EUR
May 4, 2018 Retail Sales EUR

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7834 and closed at 0.7798 – depreciating by 0.46% due to a drop in crude oil.

With crude oil prices stalling the Loonie has shown that impact. After several weeks of Loonie advances it has finally seen the decline. We will keep an eye out on how oil prices are this week along with imports and exports data to be released Thursday.

NAFTA talks are still going but no official agreement has been made. With the Mexican presidential election looming no agreement will seem to be made until after. The most sensitive topic in this agreement seems to be Automobiles and steal production.

 

1. GDP MoM - May 1, 2018

2. Markit Manufacturing PMI - May 1, 2018

3. Imports & Exports - May 3, 2018


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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4002 and closed at 1.3775 – depreciating by 1.62% due to lower than expected GDP data.

With GDP being lower than expected and other disappointing economic data brings the GBP lower. What could save the GBP is the Manufacturing PMI to be released this week. If those numbers come in weak than we could see new lows for the GBP.

A Brexit agreement is still lingering. EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier stated that an official Brexit signing won’t occur until a Ireland border solution has been satisfied. While the Northern Ireland’s DUP Leader Foster has reported that Barnier “does not understand.” With these conflicting views we might not see an official signing soon.

 

1. Markit Manufacturing PMI - May 01, 2018


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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2285 and closed at 1.2132 – depreciating by 1.25% due to US government bond yields coming out positive and causing the greenbacks to become stronger.

With the US coming out with positive numbers compared to the EUR this has helped the USD but hurt the EUR. Along with doubt of a rates to rise and a Brexit agreement to be signed soon has brought doubt on the EUR.

Even though the dollar has had a great pickup in strength, this week it will be put to the test with PCE inflation and Fed will have their monetary policy meeting. Investors will be looking at the EUR economic data coming out this week to see the health of the Union.

 

1. Budget - May 02, 2018

2. Markit Manufacturing PMI - May 2, 2018

3. GDP - May 2, 2018 

4. Markit PMI Composite - May 4, 2018

5. Retail Sales May 4, 2018


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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call


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