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SUMMARY
• German bund yield extends to new 2 week highs of -0.23%.
• Fed’s Barkin, Bostic and Quarles speak more positively about US domestic outlook.
• Broader USD mixed, with commodity currencies extending post Powell gains, while EUR and GBP lag.
• State of emergency declared in Louisiana over Tropical Storm Barry. Crude oil holding gains > $60.
• Gulf of Mexico oil production cut by 53% (1mln bpd) according to US government.
• US PPI for June BEATS expectations: +1.7% YoY vs +1.6% on headline, +2.3% YoY vs +2.1% on core.
ANALYSIS
USDCAD
Dollar/CAD is back in sell mode this morning after yesterday’s short covering rally above the 1.3070s fizzled out at the next chart resistance level in the 1.3080s. Some slightly hotter core US CPI data for June and some less dovish than expected comments yesterday out of Fed members Barkin, Bostic and Quarles (which saw US yields catch a bid) seemed to be the catalyst for the rally, but we think this week’s clarity with regard to the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Canada and negative USDCAD chart technicals reasserted itself in trader’s minds by end of day. We think Tropical Storm Barry and its effect on oil prices here is icing on the cake for USDCAD shorts, but we would caution that the oil bid doesn’t look panicky (August WTI still struggling to take out yesterday’s high). The US just reported its June PPI data it came in hotter than expected: +1.7% YoY vs +1.6% on the headline, and +2.3% YoY vs +2.1% on the core (ex-food and energy) measure. Could this be the US/China tariffs finally getting passed through to US producers? When we combine this morning’s data with yesterday’s CPI data, we think this makes Jerome Powell look bad because he has flip flopped on the transitory nature of soft inflation and has now used persistently lower inflation as one of the Fed’s excuses for signaling a deep dive into a new rate cutting cycle. Why can’t he tell us the real reason the Fed needs to cut rates? Or does he even know why? Next week’s North American calendar features US June Retail Sales and a speech from Fed chairman Powell in Europe (Tuesday), Canadian CPI for June (Wednesday) and Canadian Retail Sales for May (Friday).
USDCAD DAILY
USDCAD HOURLY
AUG CRUDE OIL DAILY
EURUSD
Euro/dollar is struggling to recover from its post US CPI losses this morning as US yields suddenly look perky again. It’s as if the US bond market has totally forgotten about chairman Powell’s dovish external outlook (which he reiterated twice on capitol hill this week) and has decided to focus on a slight beat to US CPI for June and some more optimistic comments out of other Fed members yesterday…or it’s simply following the German bond market (which it has done for most of this year). We think the latter is the more likely reason for the US yield rally, and so we continue to continue to watch the bund yield here. The hotter than expected US PPI report for June has now seen a small wave of broad USD buying come in, but it’s been rather mild. We think traders are going to need a day to digest the surprising news and so we think EURUSD flounders here around the 1.1230-40s. A move back below the 1.1230s would be a decidedly negative technical development in our opinion, as it would erase all the market’s progress since Powell’s dovish remarks on Wednesday.
EURUSD DAILY
EURUSD HOURLY
AUG GOLD DAILY
GBPUSD
Sterling is also having a hard time getting back above its pre US CPI levels from yesterday, and stubborn chart support (turned resistance) in the 1.2540-50s doesn’t appear to be helping. The broader USD is seeing an uptick following the hotter than expected June US PPI figures just released, but support in the 1.2520s continues to hold. We think GBPUSD range trades here to close out the week. Next week’s UK calendar features a slew of important economic reports: May Employment report (Tuesday), June CPI (Wednesday), and June Retail Sales (Thursday).
GBPUSD DAILY
GBPUSD HOURLY
EURGBP DAILY
AUDUSD
The Aussie is treading quietly below the psychological 0.7000 figure after buyers failed on a breakout attempt above the level in early European trade, and this morning’s strong US PPI data for June is not helping the market in its attempt to probe higher once again. We think the buyers need to come back quick and close AUDUSD above the 0.7000 mark, otherwise we could see sellers build some confidence once again. Next week’s Australian calendar features the RBA Minutes from its last meeting on Monday night ET, and the Australian Employment report for June on Wednesday night ET.
AUDUSD DAILY
AUDUSD HOURLY
SEP COPPER DAILY
USDJPY
Dollar/yen extended its post US CPI gains yesterday after the US 10yr bond yield broke back above the 2.10% level. Overhead chart resistance in the 108.60s has capped the gains in overnight trade so far today and it appears some EURJPY selling flows are dragging the market lower into NY trade (USDJPY ignoring the fact that US 10yr yields at now trading higher at 2.14% post US PPI). We think USDJPY range trades to close out the week. Support 108.10. Resistance 108.40.
USDJPY DAILY
USDJPY HOURLY
US 10YR BOND YIELD DAILY
Charts: TWS Workspace
About the Author
Erik Bregar - Director, Head of FX Strategy
Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.
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