Currency Market Trend Analysis: July 17, 2017

Ryan July 17th, 2017

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By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Entity
July 17, 2017	CPI (Jun)	EMU
July 18, 2017	PPI (Jun)	UK
July 18, 2017	CPI (Jun)	UK
July 18, 2017	BoE’s Governor Carney Speech	UK
July 18, 2017	Export/Import Price Index (Jun)	USA
July 19, 2017	Housing Stats (Jun)	USA
July 19, 2017	EIA Crude Oil Stocks Report	USA
July 20, 2017	PPI (Jun)	Germany
July 20, 2017	Retail Sales Data (Jun)	UK
July 20, 2017	ECB Interest Rate Decision	EMU
July 20, 2017	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	EMU
July 21, 2017	Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jun)	UK
July 21, 2017	CPI (Jun)	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD/USD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD opened last week at 0.7767 and closed at 0.7899.

The CAD appreciated by 1.71% against the USD last week, in the wake of poor US CPI and consumer spending data. This data contradicts Yellen’s statement that the slow-down in inflation is temporary, reducing the likelihood of a US rate hike in the near-future. The BoC raised the repo rate by 25 bp last week – an anticipated event that was already priced in to exchange rates.

The CAD is likely to trade steady until Friday, at which point the new CPI data will be the main driver of volatility.

1. CPI (Jun): Friday July 21.

GBP/USD - British Pound

The GBP opened last week at 1.2889 and closed at 1.3076.

The GBP appreciated 1.45% against the USD over the past week. This appreciation was largely due to weak US CPI and consumer spending data., tempered by recent BOE policymaker comments indicating a reluctance to raise rates. Brexit talks begin today, and are likely to increase volatility in the beginning of the week.

The CPI data, releasing Tuesday will be the largest rate driver through the week. Expect slight appreciation, barring lower-than-expected CPI data.

1. PPI (Jun): Tuesday July 18.

2. CPI (Jun): Tuesday July 18.

3. BoE's Governor Carney Speech: Tuesday July 18.

4. Retail Sales Data (Jun): Thursday July 20.

5. Public Sector Borrowing (Jun): Friday July 21.

EUR/USD - European Union Euro

The Euro opened last week at 1.1401 and closed at 1.1452.

Over the past week, the Euro has appreciated by 0.45% against the USD, largely due to weak financial metrics from the US. The Euro is being bolstered by rising expectations of QE tapering. It is not expected that the ECB will increase rates this Thursday. Expect slight appreciation, with a potential acceleration on Thursday.

1. ECB Interest Rate Decision: Thursday July 20.

2. ECB Monetary Policy Statement: Thursday July 20.

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About the Author

Collin McAliley - Financial Analyst

Collin educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan?

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