Currency Market Trend Analysis: July 24, 2017

Ryan July 24th, 2017

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By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Releases / Holiday	Entity
July 24, 2017	PMI (Jul)	EMU
July 24, 2017	PMI (Jul)	USA
July 25, 2017	IFO Business Climate Report (Jul)	Germany
July 25, 2017	Housing Price Index (May)	USA
July 26, 2017	GDP (Q2)	UK
July 26, 2017	Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement	USA
July 26, 2017	Fed’s Interest Rate Decision	USA
July 27, 2017	Gfk Consumer Confidence Report (Jul)	Germany
July 28, 2017	CPI (Jul)	France
July 28, 2017	CPI (Jul)	Germany
July 28, 2017	Economic Statement Indicator (Jul)	EMU
July 28, 2017	GDP (Q2)	USA
July 28, 2017	GDP (May)	Canada

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD/USD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD opened last week at 0.7908 and closed at 0.7971.

The CAD appreciated by 0.80% against the USD last week. This appreciation was largely due to politics-led weakness in the USD, coupled with middling Q2 data, and worries that the Fed may not raise rates in December. Investor sentiment in the CAD was boosted further by the BoC interest rate bump, and higher-than-expected Canadian retail sales. The CAD is approaching the psychological support level of 0.8 – increasing the possibility that last weeks’ rapid appreciation will taper.

The CAD is likely to appreciate further against the USD this week, though to a lesser extent that last week. This appreciation could be slowed, or potentially reversed, if US housing data comes back stronger than expected.

1. GDP (May): Friday July 28.

GBP/USD - British Pound

The GBP opened last week at 1.3096 and closed at 1.2966.

The GBP depreciated 0.99% against the USD over the past week. This deprecation was softened by a weak dollar – the IMF downgraded its growth forecast for the US this past week (2017: 2.3% -> 2.1%, 2018: 2.5% -> 2.1%) due to lowered expectations for effective US expansionary policy.

Expect minimal exchange rates movements throughout the week, with the biggest potential upset coming Wednesday with the release of UK Q2 GDP figures.

1. GDP (Q2): Wednesday July 26.

EUR/USD - European Union Euro

The Euro opened last week at 1.1465 and closed at 1.1656.

Over the past week, the Euro appreciated by 1.66% against the USD, with the US dollar index hitting its lowest point since late June 2016. These gains were driven by politics-induced weakness in the USD, combined with expectations of ECB QE tapering in the near future. The ECB has given no indications that it is worried about the strength of the Euro, or the current state of inflation. Last weeks’ gains partially reversed this morning, in response to weaker-than-expected European PMI’s.

Expect slight appreciation, dependent upon European CPI and sentiment indicators to be released this week.

1. PMI (EMU, Jun): Monday July 24.

2. IFO Business Climate Report (Germany, Jul): Thursday July 25.

3. Gfk Consumer Confidence Report (Germany, Jul): Thursday July 27.

4. CPI (France, Jul): Friday July 28.

5. CPI (Germany, Jul): Friday July 28.

6. Economic Sentiment Indicator (EMU, Jul): Friday July 28.

FX Market Pro

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About the Author

Collin McAliley - Financial Analyst

Collin educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan?

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