• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

Currency Market Trend Analysis: February 13, 2018

Ryan February 13th, 2018
Currency Market Trend Analysis: February 13, 2018



By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing
*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday  
February 12, 2018 Family Day Canada
February 12, 2018 Monthly Budget Statement (Jan) USA
February 13, 2018 CPI/PPI (Jan) UK
February 13, 2018 FOMC Member Mester speech USA
February 14, 2018 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Jan) Germany
February 14, 2018 GDP (Q4) EMU
February 14, 2018 Industrial Production (Dec) EMU
February 14, 2018 Retail Sales (Jan) USA
February 14, 2018 CPI (Jan) USA
February 15, 2018 BoC Schemrbi speech Canada
February 15, 2018 Jobless Claims (Feb) USA
February 15, 2018 NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) USA
February 15, 2018 Capacity Utilization USA
February 16, 2018 Wholesale Price Index (Jan) Germany
February 16, 2018 Retail Sales (Jan) UK
February 16, 2018 Housing Starts Change (Jan) USA
February 16, 2018 Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count USA

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD/USD - Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.8008 and closed at 0.7950 – depreciating by 0.72% as oil prices fell and concerns over a return of inflation drove a liquidation of US stocks, increasing USD demand.

The CAD came under pressure this week as employment figures missed the mark. 88,000 jobs were lost in January, against an expected increase of 10,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.9%, exceeding the expectation of 5.8%. It is of note that this may have been payback for a strong November and December, in which a collective 136k jobs were added to the Canadian economy. In January, Ontario increased the minimum from $11.60 to $14.00. It is likely that this contributed to the job loss. As a result of this hike, some analysts have revised up wage growth projections YoY from 2.9% to 4.0%.

Oil prices also contributed to a hard week for the Loonie, dropping 8.69%. This fall was driven by US crude, which reached production of 10.251 million barrels per day – a level of output that hasn’t been seen since 1983.

This past week saw a dramatic stock sell-off, triggered in-part by NFP-driven fears of returning inflation. This sell-off benefited currencies that are viewed as safe havens, as well as currencies in which large volumes of stocks were denominated. As stocks fell, and people liquidated their positions, the corresponding currency had to be purchased. The USD was a prime beneficiary of both of these factors, exacerbating the CAD’s data-driven losses.


1. Family Day: Monday, February 12th     

2. BoC Schembri speech (Dec): Thursday, February 15th     


Investing.comForex Charts powered by Investing.com




GBP/USD - British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4018 and closed at 1.3828 – depreciating by 1.36% as the USD benefited from USD-denominated stock sell-offs, and UK data failed to impress.

UK data missed the mark this past week, putting further pressure on the Sterling. The services, manufacturing, and composite PMI’s all came in below expectations, and the trade deficit widened to 13.58 billion pounds. These data were partially balanced by a hawkish BoE meeting, in which interest rates were remained constant (as expected), but inflation and growth forecasts were upgraded (the 2018 GDP growth projection was increased from 1.6% to 1.8%). The BoE reported little economic slack, going on to state that demand is exceeding supply, and will drive further inflationary pressures. Markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability for a May rate hike.

Markets will likely look to UK and US CPI/PPI figures for impetus this week. The UK CPI will be of particular importance, given the ongoing struggle with negative real wage growth.


1. CPI/PPI (Jan): Tuesday, February 13th      

2. Retail Sales (Jan): Friday, February 16th 


Investing.comForex Charts powered by Investing.com




EUR/USD - European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2415 and closed at 1.2253 – depreciating by 1.30% as the USD was underpinned by stock liquidation-driven demand, despite strong Eurozone (EZ) figures.

EZ data underpinned the common currency this past week, shielding it in-part from broad-based USD gains. The German ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.9 against a 56.7 expectation, while the EZ services PMI came in at 58.0 against a 57.6 estimate. Additionally, the European Commission released an updated forecast of 2.3% 2018 GDP growth for the EZ.

The Euro received further support as Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the SPD reached an agreement to form a grand coalition. Many are skeptical of the strength of this coalition, but it likely represents a reduction in political risk for the common currency.

Markets will likely look to EZ GDP and US CPI/PPI for guidance this coming week.


1. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Jan, Germany): Wednesday, February 14th

2. GDP (Q4, EMU): Wednesday, February 14th        

3. Industrial Production (EMU): Wednesday, February 14th               

4. Wholesale Price Index (Jan, Germany): Friday, February 16th       


Investing.comForex Charts powered by Investing.com



Get more Currency Market Trend Analysis >>

Sign up to get CXI's Currency Market Trend Analysis sent to your inbox weekly >>


FX Market Pro

Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.

About the Author

Collin McAliley

 Collin McAliley - Business Operations Analyst,

Collin educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

Written with assistance from Christopher Griffith - Junior Data Analyst

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com


Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.



This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.


Tags: Ceifx, Resources