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Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 4, 2018

Ryan April 4th, 2018
Currency Market Trend Analysis: April 4, 2018



By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing
Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing
*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday  
April 2, 2018 Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) UK/CAD/EMU
April 2, 2018 ISM Prices Paid (Mar) USA
April 2, 2018 FOMC Member Kashkari Speech USA
April 3, 2018 Retail Sales (Feb) Germany
April 3, 2018 ISM NY index – Business Conditions (Mar) USA
April 4, 2018 PMI Construction UK
April 4, 2018 Factory Order (Feb) USA
April 4, 2018 Consumer Price Index (Mar)  EMU
April 4, 2018 ADP Employment Change (Mar) USA
April 4, 2018 Unemployment Rate (Feb) EMU
April 5, 2018 Market Services PMI  UK/EMU
April 5, 2018 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts EMU
April 5, 2018 International Merchandise Trade (Feb) CAD
April 6, 2018 Average Hourly Earnings (Mar) USA
April 6, 2018 Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) USA
April 6, 2018 Net Change in Employment (Mar) CAD

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar

CAD/USD opened last week at 0.7759 and closed at 0.7756 – depreciating by 0.04% due to some disappointing releases of the monthly GDP and Raw Materials Price Index.

With this, less than expected, decline in GDP it weakened the CAD. This decline was partly due to the decrease of household spending. Canada already has a high housing debt ratio and the Bank of Canada’s intentions to increase interest rates should be slowed down.


1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Monday, April 2nd

2. International Merchandise Trade (Feb): Thursday, April 5th

3. Net Change in Employment (Mar): Friday, April 6th


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British Pound

GBP/USD opened last week at 1.4131 and closed at 1.4008 – depreciating by -0.87% due to some political retaliations.

Over the weekend Russia announced it will expel more than 50 UK diplomats as retaliation of the expulsions of the Russian diplomats earlier in the week. Tensions are rising ever since the poisoning of a former Russian spy.

With the Bank of England and a fading enthusiasm of a softer Brexit this has caused uncertainty of the Sterling. The GBP has been increasing the past couple weeks and it’s finally when the dust settles and a common ground is being placed on what the valuation of the GBP will be. With the PMI coming out this will surly tell us more of how the GBP and USD will react.


1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Tuesday, April 3rd         

2. PMI Construction (Mar): Wednesday, April 4th

3. Markit Services PMI: Thursday, April 5th


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European Central Bank Euro

EUR/USD opened last week at 1.2358 and closed at 1.2321 – depreciating by -0.30% due to a strong CPE from the US.

With CPI in the EU side decline and the strong CPI on the US side this caused the EUR to depreciate against the dollar. With a new month and new data to be coming in it causes more room for the EUR to grow. If the BOE doesn’t make a firm stance on the rate hike we could see some instability in the EU.

Markets had a long weekend and the eyes are for this week for updated data. This week will set pace for the EUR and USD.


1. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar, EMU): Monday, April 2nd

2. Retail Sales (Feb, Germany): Tuesday, April 3rd         

3. Unemployment Rate (Feb, EMU): Wednesday, April 4th

4. Consumer Price Index (Mar, EMU): Wednesday, April 4th

5. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EMU): Thursday, April 5th


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About the Author

Remon Shehata - Data Analyst

Remon educates corporate clients on foreign currency markets lending industry best practices that enhance client knowledge and create specialized solutions that fit each business. Interested in having a custom international payments strategy or foreign exchange risk plan? Request A Call

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