• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

Terrible German manufacturing PMI spooks markets

Ryan March 22nd, 2019
Terrible German manufacturing PMI spooks markets



  • USDCAD: Dollar/CAD is trading with a bid tone this morning after Germany reported a terrible manufacturing PMI print for the month of March.  This caused a “risk-off” selling wave across the broader markets and saw the EUR, S&Ps, crude oil, copper and AUD all move swiftly lower.  The beneficiaries were the traditional safe havens (the USD, JPY, and bonds).  Today’s move adds credence to the trader angst we observed yesterday post Fed.  What’s the Fed worried about all of a sudden?  Growth slowing down across the globe in our opinion (case in point with today’s German data).  USDCAD has benefited from all this, and is now trading just shy of chart resistance at the 1.3400 level as market participants prepare for the release of some key Canadian data.  The consensus estimate is +0.4% MoM, and +0.2% MoM ex. Autos for January Retail Sales.  Markets are expecting +0.6% MoM and +1.4% YoY for February CPI.  We think weaker than expected data will spur on the bulls and see this market regain its new uptrend in style.

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar is hemorrhaging losses this morning as the 44.7 (vs 48.0 expected) read on German manufacturing sentiment for March is starting to confirm some of market’s worst fears about slowing global growth.  EURUSD plunged all the way down to the next major trend-line support level in the 1.1290-1.1305 area, and this comes after an already poor NY close yesterday which saw the market retrace all of Wednesday’s post Fed gains.  German bund yields are tanking, and have now gone below zero!  We think the leveraged funds (who are net short EUR) are breathing a sigh of relief over the last 48hrs.  We’ll get an updated read on their positioning from the CFTC later today.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling is somehow avoiding the broad “risk-off” flows of today, as it appears some “no-deal” Brexit risk has been removed from the market.  The EU’s Donald Tusk confirmed last night that Europe is willing to grant the UK an unconditional Brexit extension until April 12th, and a further extension to May 22nd  if the UK’s parliament can finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement next week.  The EU is still not willing to renegotiate, but Theresa May now has two more weeks to convince her country to accept the only agreement on the table.  Chart support today rests in the 1.3070s, while resistance is very chunky from the 1.3170s to the 1.3220 level.

  • AUDUSD: The Aussie is trading down this morning, as one might expect given the moves lower in EURUSD and copper.  Yesterday’s NY close did not produce an bearish, inverted hammer candle, but the pressure on chart support in the 0.7080s still remains at this hour.  We think a move below this level may usher in a new wave of selling and keep the leveraged fund short position in charge here.

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen is back in sell mode today after yesterday’s bounce proved feeble.  Chart resistance in the 110.70-80s reasserted itself and when the shoe dropped this morning with the weak German data, USDJPY traders started to scramble in search of buyers.  The market continues to fall here, and we think how the market responds to the 110.10s will be pivotal.  We’ll get an updated read on the leveraged fund net USDJPY long position later today, which is now starting to take some heat once again.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.


Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

May Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

May Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

June S&P 500 Daily

Charts: TWS Workspace

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com


Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.



This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.