• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

USDCAD uptrend at risk of unraveling

Ryan March 19th, 2019
USDCAD uptrend at risk of unraveling



  • USDCAD: Dollar/CAD is slipping lower this morning after May crude oil prices continue their march higher.  Talk of rising demand and increased compliance with OPEC supply cuts are underpinning the commodity, and with the May contract breaching the 58.80s yesterday, we have all in elements in place now for a sustained rally higher.  Traders are trying to buy trend-line support at the 1.3305 level in USDCAD as NY trading gets underway this morning, but the momentum is not in their favor at this hour.  Watch oil prices again today and USDCAD’s ability to hold support, as there continues to be nothing major on the economic calendar until the FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon.  Failure to hold the 1.3305 level would risk unravelling all the progress USDCAD longs have made since the market broke higher on March 1st.  Canada releases its 2019 budget later today at 4pmET, but nothing market moving is expected.  More on this here from the CBC.

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar traders are trying the upside again today after some negative Brexit headlines saw the market follow GBPUSD lower during NY trade yesterday.  Buyers stepped in at chart support in the 1.1320s and it’s been a slow drift higher to familiar chart resistance in the 1.1360s ever since.  The German ZEW survey for March came in mixed this morning (weaker than expected on the headline “current situation” figure, but not so bad as expected on the “economic sentiment” gauge), and so traders largely ignored this.  The Chinese yuan continues to trade in tight range so far this week.  The BTP/Bund spread trades at a new 7-month low this morning in the +230s, which we think is notably helpful for EURUSD here.  More dovish than expected rhetoric out of the Fed tomorrow would keep this momentum going.  A break above chart resistance in the 1.1360s would open up the possibility of further buying into the 1.14s.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling traders appear to be covering short positions again this week after yesterday’s negative Brexit headlines couldn’t take out chart support in the 1.3190-1.3200 area.  Theresa May’s attempt to sway the DUP party to her side is still not working.  The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, said yesterday that a 3rd meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan cannot occur unless the deal has “substantial changes”.  Word on the street now is that, while tomorrow’s vote has been cancelled, Theresa May will try and push for another vote next week.  More here from the BBC.

  • AUDUSD: The Aussie is trading steady today as the dovish-sounding RBA Minutes, released last night, didn’t offer any new surprises for market participants.  More here.  May copper prices have broken above chart resistance in the 2.9300-2.9350 area this morning, which we think is worthy of attention.  Expect AUDUSD to continue to follow the ebbs of flows of EURUSD predominantly though, as traders now position for tomorrow’s Fed meeting.  Expect weakness down to the 0.7070s should EURUSD recede and chart support in the 0.7090s give way.  The RBA’s Bullock will be speaking at 8pmET tonight.

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen continued its hunt for buyers yesterday after an attempt to regain the 111.60s into the London close failed.  They were found at trend-line chart support in the 111.30s and then the 111.10s overnight once the S&P futures broke above the 2845 mark.  Expect the market to pivot around current levels this morning as over 1.7blnUSD in options are slated to expire between the 111.35 and 111.50 strikes.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.


Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

May Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

May Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

June S&P 500 Daily

Charts: TWS Workspace

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com


Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.



This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.