• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • SOLUTIONS
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • INDUSTRIES
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

USD trading bid ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report

Ryan May 3rd, 2019
USD trading bid ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report

 

Summary

  • USDCAD: Dollar/CAD is trading quietly bid this morning as traders await the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data out of the US for April at 8:30amET.  The consensus estimate is for a gain of 190k jobs on the headline, +3.3% YoY and +0.3% MoM growth in wages, and 3.8% on the unemployment rate.  We think a blowout number, like the ADP jobs report earlier this week, could extend the post-Fed USD rally even further and see USDCAD trade with a 1.35 handle.  After the NFPs, we’ll get the US ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers at 10amET and the expectation here is for a read of 57.0 for April.  There will also be an avalanche of Fed speak on the docket today (largely from the Hoover Institute Policy Conference), with Williams, Evans, Clarida, and Bowman all scheduled for speeches between 10:15am and 3pmET.  The Fed’s Bullard, Daly, Kaplan and Mester will be speaking after the close today at 7:45pmET.  

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar is slipping lower this morning as yesterday’s NY close below trend-line support at 1.1175 emboldens the fund short position heading into the NFP report.  The weaker than expected March Eurozone PPI data released earlier today (-0.1% MoM vs 0%) is not helping the mood here either we would argue.  Chart support today comes in at the 1.1120-30s, then the 1.1080s.  Expect further pressure in EURUSD should we get stellar employment numbers out of US.  Conversely, expect a bounce up to the 1.1200-1.1220 level, where over 2.5blnEUR in options expire at 10amET, should we get weak numbers.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling has given up chart support in 1.3010-20s this morning after the April Markit Services PMI data for the UK missed expectations (50.4 vs 50.5).  Some buyers have now stepped in at a down-ward sloping trend-line support level in the 1.2980s ahead of the NFP numbers.  The EURGBP cross continues to hug a trend-line that held up prices yesterday (0.8560-70s).  Theresa May said she “profoundly disagrees” with calls for a 2nd Brexit referendum, when she spoke to the nation in a televised address in the last hour.

  • AUDUSD: The Australian dollar isn’t doing much here as traders await the always anticipated NFP numbers out of the US, but unlike EURUSD and GBPUSD, it is holding yesterday’s chart support levels.  July copper prices are trading pretty much flat on the session so far, but still remain close to yesterday’s lows.  Dollar/yuan has inched above the 6.7450s in European trade so far today, which is technically bullish for the broader USD here we feel.  Perhaps we do get strong US job numbers for April?

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen has gone to sleep here as market participants await the NFPs.  The S&P futures have recovered to the levels they were at yesterday prior to the headlines crossing about US/China trade talks being at an impasse.  US bond yields are trading higher this morning too as there seems to be optimism that we’re going to get good US numbers.  

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.

 

Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

June Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

July Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

S&P 500 Daily Chart

Charts: TWS Workspace


About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International, CXI, is the leading provider of comprehensive foreign exchange services, risk management solutions and integrated international payments processing technology in North America. CXI’s relationship-driven approach ensures clients receive tailored solutions and world-class customer service. Through innovative and trusted FX software platforms, CXI delivers versatile foreign exchange services to our clients, so that they can efficiently manage and streamline their foreign currency and global payment needs. CXI is a trusted partner among financial institutions, corporations and retail markets around the world. To learn more, visit: www.ceifx.com

 

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

 

 

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.

 

Archive