1-888-998-3948


Friday, March 29, 2019

Happy Brexit day

Happy Brexit day
Source: Powered by Exchange Bank of Canada – www.ebcfx.com/news

Summary

  • USDCAD: Dollar/CAD continues to struggle with trend-line chart resistance in the 1.3430s this morning, and the positive headwinds that ought to have seen the market break through it yesterday are now reversing.  The S&P futures are trading 12 points higher after Treasury secretary Mnuchin said the latest round of US/China trade talks were “constructive” in Beijing today.  The British pound is spiking higher at this hour on rumors that a number of Labour lawmakers have finally come around and will vote for the withdrawal agreement portion of Theresa May’s Brexit plan at 9:30amET today.  Finally, May crude oil prices are trading back over $60 this morning amid a broad “risk-on/sell USD”, vibe to global markets this morning.  All this is now putting pressure on USDCAD as traders await the Canadian GDP report for January at 8:30amET.  The consensus estimate is for no growth (0% read), which is a bit pessimistic in our opinion.  Expect selling down into the high 1.33s should the numbers beat expectations.

  • EURUSD: Euro/dollar seems to be following GBPUSD this morning.  The market dipped briefly below yesterday’s chart support in the 1.1210s when sterling sold off around 4amET, but it has since recovered on hopes the withdrawal agreement passes in the House of Commons later this morning.  Trend-line resistance in the 1.1230s is capping at this hour.  USDCNH has reversed lower today on the Mnuchin comments, which is EURUSD supportive.  We think the market could see some short covering into week’s end should the 1.1230s give way to the upside.  Today’s North American calendar also features the US PCE price index for January at 8:30amET, followed by the Chicago PMI for March at 9:45amET.  We’ll also have Fed speak from Williams (9:25amET), Kaplan (10:30amET) and Quarles (12:05pmET).

  • GBPUSD: It’s Brexit day in the UK, or the day that Britain was supposed to formally leave the EU.  Instead, politicians will be voting on the withdrawal agreement portion of Theresa May’s Brexit deal today at 9:30amET (nothing seems to be working for the UK government, and so they have proposed voting on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration separately).  More here from Sky News.  GBPUSD has rebounded off chart support in the 1.3010s this morning to test resistance in the 1.3130-40s.  The DUP party from Northern Ireland has reiterated that they will not vote in favor the withdrawal agreement as it currently stands.  Today’s session could be quite volatile.

  • AUDUSD: The Aussie indeed dripped lower after yesterday’s option expiry, but buyers were found once again at downward sloping trend-line support in the 0.7060s.  It’s been a slow drift higher ever since, with today’s broad “risk-on” tone lending a helping hand (S&Ps and CNH higher, while USD broadly lower).  We think there’s scope for AUDUSD to rally a bit higher today if EURUSD can extend gains above the 1.1230s.

  • USDJPY: Dollar yen is trading with a very choppy tone as the broad “risk-on” tone to global markets this morning competes with broad USD weakness.  Japan reported a slew of economic data last night, but it was largely ignored by traders.  Tokyo CPI for March beat on the headline, but came in on target at +1.1% YoY for the core reading.  The Japanese unemployment rate fell to 2.3% in February vs 2.5% expected.  Industrial Production for February beat on the MoM figure (+1.4% vs +1.0%), but missed on the YoY (-1.0% vs -0.1%).  Finally, the Retail Trade numbers for February missed expectations (+0.4% vs +1.3%).  We think USDJPY coasts here into the weekend.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.

 

Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

May Crude Oil Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/CNH Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

May Copper Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

June S&P 500 Daily

Charts: TWS Workspace


About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call CXI's trading desk directly at 1-833-572-8933.

About Currency Exchange International
Currency Exchange International (CXI) is a leading provider of foreign currency exchange services in North America for financial institutions, corporations and travelers. Products and services for international travelers include access to buy and sell more than 90 foreign currencies, multi-currency cash passports, traveler's cheques and gold bullion coins and bars. For financial institutions and corporations, our services include the exchange of foreign currencies, international wire transfers, global EFT, the purchase and sale of foreign bank drafts, international traveler's cheques, and foreign cheque clearing through the use of CXI's innovative CEIFX web-based FX software www.ceifx.com

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Currency Exchange International for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Currency Exchange International, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Currency Exchange International nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Currency Exchange International products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Currency Exchange International.
Posted By Isabella Guevara at 08:15 AM
comments powered by Disqus

Platinum Passport

Travelers: Never miss a thing and be the first to know about CXI branch promotions, travel tips and hot trends.

Currency Insider

Corporations & Financial Institutions: Want to get ahead of the curve for the upcoming week? Get CXI's currency market trend analysis sent directly to your inbox weekly.