Currency Market Trend Analysis: January 23, 2017

Ryan January 23rd, 2017

By The Numbers: Your FX Week In Review

Foreign currency value versus USD is decreasing

Foreign currency value versus USD is increasing

*Indicators show the percent change over the past week.

Currency Calendar

Date	Holiday	Country
January 24, 2017	UK Supreme Court Rule on Parliament's Role in Brexit	England
January 26, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	England
January 26, 2017	Advance Goods Trade Balance (Dec)	USA
January 27, 2017	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)	USA
January 27, 2017	Durable Goods Orders (Dec)	USA

Upcoming bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar lost 180 points last week against its US counterpart and closed the week near the 1.32 mark. We expect this pair to continue trading in a tight range this week as the economic calendar is light with only the Wholesale Sales report worth noting.

President Trump’s inauguration speech included an “America first” statement regarding foreign and trade policy. The details and implications of which are an unknown to the rest of world, especially Canada who exports about 80% of its goods to the US.

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday January 23.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP closed last week at 1.237 after gaining 340 points primarily on general USD weakness and uncertainty with President Trump’s trade policy. PM May’s clarity that the UK should brace for a hard Brexit helped to clear some of the risks and confusion surrounding that process.

This week’s key event is Preliminary GDP which comes out on Thursday so barring any major surprises, this pair should continue towards the 1.25 mark throughout the week.

1. EU Membership Court Ruling: Tuesday January 24.

2. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday January 24.

3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Wednesday January 25.

4. Preliminary GDP: Thursday January 26.

5. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday January 26.

EUR - Euro

The EUR closed out last week in the 1.07 area and is expected to trade in a narrow range throughout this upcoming week. Again, general USD weakness continues to be the main theme and driving force with the major currency pairs, with the exception of the Canadian dollar.

This week’s economic calendar contains a variety of key events including German surveys, Spanish Employment, ECB data and PMIs.

1. German Bundesbank Report: Monday January 23.

2. Eurostat’s Consumer Confidence: Monday January 23.

3. ECB President Mario Draghi’s Speech: Tuesday January 24.

4. Flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs): Tuesday January 24.

5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday January 25.

6. National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate: Wednesday January 25.

7. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday January 26.

8. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday January 26.

9. ECB Monetary Data: Friday January 27.

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